Waves of IS Resurgence Spark Anxiety Across Iraq and Syria
Extremist ISIS groups are escalating their activities in Iraq and Syria.
Don't let the drop in IS attacks fool you, security experts caution that the Islamic State (IS) could exploit the tumultuous situation in Syria to make a comeback. It appears that IS is heeding this call, as reports from various security circles and politics reveal they are reactivating fighters, distributing weapons and propaganda, identifying targets, and ramping up recruitment efforts in Syria and neighboring Iraq.
"IS elements have begun to resurface following years of stagnation, emboldened by the turmoil in Syria," explains Abdul Ameer al-Bayati of the Iraqi army. A chilling example of their methods was demonstrated in last year's incident. As Syrian rebels approached the capital Damascus, IS commanders from the Raqqa area dispatched two supporters to Iraq to issue instructions for attacks. But they were apprehended at a checkpoint in northern Iraq on December 2. Utilizing the information, Iraqi security forces traced and terminated a suicide bomber in the city of Daquq eleven days later, before he could detonate his explosives belt.
The attempts by IS to rekindle its strength have had minimal impact so far. Security forces in Syria and Iraq, who have been tracking IS for years, have foiled approximately a dozen planned attacks in 2025 alone [1][2]. The number of attacks IS has declared since Assad's downfall has even diminished: There were 38 attacks in Syria from January to May of 2025, indicating a possible 90 attacks for the whole year—approximately a third of last year's count, according to data from the SITE Intelligence Group [1][3].
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The Misleading Nature of Reduced IS Attacks
The decline in IS attacks in Syria isn't necessarily an indicator of IS weakness. Rather, it may suggest that the organization has entered a phase of realignment, posits Rita Katz, director of the SITE Intelligence Group [3]. After 13 years of conflict, the newly-formed Syrian government led by the Islamist leader Ahmed al-Scharaa is struggling to maintain control over the country while simultaneously dealing with attacks by suspected Assad loyalists and Israeli airstrikes.
U.S. President Donald Trump surprisingly rescinded sanctions against Syria last month, a move that was perceived as a victory for al-Scharaa. Back in May, Trump met with al-Scharaa in Saudi Arabia and urged him to curb any IS comeback. Simultaneously, the U.S. has plans to significantly reduce its approximately 2000 troops in Syria by mid-year [2]. "The transitional government is stretched thin from a security perspective. They simply don't have enough personnel to maintain control across the country," warns Charles Lister from the Middle East Institute.
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Countering the Resurgence of IS
Syrian Defense Minister Murhaf Abu Kasra stated in January that the country is bolstering its intelligence work and security services are proactively addressing every threat. At its height, between 2014 and 2017, IS controlled roughly a third of Syria and Iraq, implementing its radical interpretation of Islamic law and gaining a reputation for inhumane brutality. The security officials who spoke to Reuters do not foresee a repeat of this scenario, but warn against minimizing the group due to its demonstrated resilience [3].
Iraqi military spokesman Sabah al-Numan emphasizes the efficacy of countermeasures against IS. After the fall of the Assad regime, the International Coalition against the Islamic State carried out airstrikes and raids on IS hideouts. These operations eliminated "terrorist elements" and hindered their regrouping. Furthermore, Iraq now possesses drones and advanced intelligence technology for more precise monitoring [2][3]. The United Nations projects the number of IS fighters in Syria and Iraq to be between 1,500 and 3,000 [4]. Since the fall of the Assad regime, IS has stimulated sleeper cells, scouted potential targets, and dispersed weapons, according to several security sources and Syrian officials [2][3].
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The group has also infiltrated fighters from the Syrian desert into cities like Aleppo, Homs, and Damascus [2][3]. Syria declared three days after Trump's meeting with al-Scharaa that they had raided IS hideouts in Aleppo, neutralizing three IS fighters, capturing four, and seizing weapons and uniforms. Two U.S. defense officials and two Syrian officials corroborated with Reuters that U.S.-Syria cooperation has involved limited intelligence sharing [3].
A significant concern is the approximately 9,000 IS fighters and their families in prisons and camps, under the protection of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF)—a Kurdish-led group supported by the U.S. [2][3]. The SDF has reported at least two escape attempts post-Assad's downfall. Additionally, Iraqi officials are wary of the possibility that IS might have seized substantial weaponry from Assad's forces and might covertly smuggle them into Iraq. Concerns from regional and European leaders also persist, as intelligence services have tracked a minimal number of suspected foreign fighters traveling from Europe to Syria for the first time in years. It remains unclear whether IS or another group was responsible for their recruitment [2][3].
Source: ntv.de, Ahmed Rasheed, Timour Azhari and Michael Georgy, rts
- Islamic State
- Syria
- Iraq
- Terrorism
- Security
Enrichment Data:
- Overall: Current concerns regarding a potential Islamic State (IS) militant comeback in Iraq and Syria face strategic and security challenges. Key points include:
- Strategic Concerns: The decrease in US troop levels in Syria, creating security gaps for ISIS. Additionally, ISIS's exploitation of political instability and security vacuums in both countries.
- Security Challenges: The shift in ISIS's focus from desert to urban areas, targeting critical infrastructure such as power lines and oil facilities. The activation of sleeper cells in urban areas, allowing ISIS to launch surprise attacks and maintain a presence despite reduced capabilities.
- Limited Success in Attacks: Despite efforts to revive operations, ISIS has had limited success in staging major attacks, as several planned operations have been thwarted by security forces. The number of attacks is declining compared to previous years.
- International Response: Middle East leaders and Western allies express concern about ISIS's potential resurgence, emphasizing the need for continued vigilance and cooperation to prevent the group from gaining strength.
- The resurgence of the Islamic State (IS) in Syria and Iraq is a matter of concern for security experts, given the ongoing political instability and security vacuums in these regions.
- The European Union, closely monitoring the developments in Iraq and Syria, is aware of the potential risks posed by war-and-conflicts, politics, general-news, and crime-and-justice, as they all can contribute to the comeback of IS.
