Extreme Weather Fluctuations: El Niño, Climate Change, and Unpredictable Snow Conditions
Living Through the Crazy Winter Weather: A Guide to El Niño and Its Impact on Eastern US
Updated: March 5, 2024
Winter comes with unpredictable conditions, and this year is no different. If you've been feeling puzzled by the term "El Niño," you're not alone. Here's what you need to know about this climate anomaly and its effect on the East Coast of the United States this winter season.
What is El Niño?
El Niño is a climate pattern characterized by higher-than-usual sea temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. It typically kicks off around December, mirroring the Christmas season in its Spanish name meaning "little boy." El Niño events occur in irregular intervals of 2 to 7 years and can last anywhere from 9 to 12 months [1].
How does El Niño impact Eastern US weather?
El Niño's influence on the East Coast isn't guaranteed, but it tends to have certain noticeable effects. In the Southeast, El Niño brings increased moisture and precipitation, rendering more floods and, under cold temperatures, snowfall. In contrast, the Northeast usually experiences drier and warmer conditions during El Niño years [1].
What does this mean for snow?
More moisture in the Southeast means more snow if the temperatures permit. But if temperatures remain balmy, precipitation will likely manifest as rain, triggering potential flooding. In the Northeast, El Niño typically brings fewer snow accumulations due to the warmer weather and reduced moisture availability, with snowfall ranging between 2 to 10 inches less than average during El Niño years [2].
The Role of Climate Change
Climate change is on the rise, causing the entire United States to experience warmer and less snowy winters. Although this does not signify the vanishing of snow or an end to winter storms, the average snowfall will gradually decrease. While there may be less snow, some areas may face more extreme snow events due to the extra moisture available in the atmosphere [2].
The Bigger Picture
The relationship between El Niño, climate change, and winter weather on the East Coast is intricate yet fascinating. El Niño, accompanied by climate change, brings warmer and more variable conditions to the Northeast, a region that is already warming and experiencing less snow, more ice, and more weather inconsistency caused by global warming [3].
Meanwhile, the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast can expect more moisture and precipitation, fostering the potential for increased snowwide provided the temperatures are cold enough. However, climate change is affecting these regions as well, leading to milder winters and diminished snowfall [3].
El Niño, combined with climate change, may bring warmer winters accompanied by less snow, while escalating the likelihood of severe snowstorms in select regions. Regrettably, we can't control when an El Niño year will occur or how long it will last. Scientists continue to study El Niño events to understand their far-reaching impacts and their interaction with climate change [3].
Ultimately, "When it comes to the climate, it's not about the change — it's about the rate of change," explains Sarah Nelson, Research Director at AMC [3]. Rapid shifts in temperature and precipitation hinders storm and flood preparation, threatens agricultural crops, and disrupts natural ecosystems. Combining El Niño effects with climate change impacts leads to unpredictable and destructive winter weather.
Taking Action
Weather is undoubtedly complicated, but there are measures you can take to help make a positive impact on our climate. Join AMC's Conservation Action Network to stay informed about conservation initiatives and partake in local to federal-level action for climate and beyond [4]. Also, consider contributing to Community Snow Observations. This program allows climate scientists to collect valuable data through the help of volunteer community members like you [4].
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/El_Ni%C3%B1o[2]https://www.climate.gov/news-features/across-us/climate-change-impacts-u-s-east-coast[3] https://www.amc.org/conservation/climate-change/what-is-el-nino-and-what-effects-will-it-have-on-the-east-coast[4]https://www.nsf.gov/od/iahcp/pressroom/snow_crowdsource.htm
Science has identified a correlation between El Niño events and climate change, particularly in regards to weather patterns on the East Coast of the United States. Specifically, the environmental science surrounding El Niño suggests that the warming trend may lead to a decrease in snowfall for the Northeast, with average snowfall reduction ranging between 2 to 10 inches during El Niño years [2]. Meanwhile, the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast can expect increased moisture and precipitation, which might result in more snow if temperatures remain cold enough [1].
