Exploration of reasons why Russia's powerful 8.8 earthquake failed to produce a significant tsunami by scientists
In the early hours of July 29, 2025, an 8.8 magnitude earthquake struck Russia's Kamchatka Peninsula, sending shockwaves across the Pacific. However, the tsunami waves that followed were surprisingly small, causing little to no damage along the U.S. West Coast.
Philip Liu, a renowned tsunami expert and professor at both Texas A&M and Cornell University, explained that the size of tsunami waves is not solely determined by the earthquake's magnitude. Instead, it's the vertical displacement of the seafloor that matters most in tsunami formation.
The Kamchatka earthquake occurred about 12 miles deep in a subduction zone, a common depth for such events, according to Judith Hubbard, an earthquake scientist and structural geologist. This depth, while typical, resulted in less water displacement and thus smaller tsunamis.
Liu further stated that the earthquake's rupture pattern didn't create the vertical deformation needed to generate massive waves. The shallow part of the subduction zone, where the rocks are cold enough for the rocks to slide in earthquakes, was not significantly affected.
Ocean measurements showed wave heights of only 10 to 14 feet, relatively small for an earthquake of this size. Hawaii's Governor Josh Green reported "not a wave of consequence," and the warnings were lifted swiftly as Hawaiian Airlines and Alaska Airlines resumed flights Wednesday morning.
Despite the smaller-than-expected waves, the warning systems performed exactly as designed, accurately predicting the tsunami's arrival times across the Pacific. Liu praised the forecasting system's accuracy, even though the wave heights were lower than initially estimated.
Coastal areas from Alaska to California remained under tsunami advisories Wednesday morning, with a warning still in effect for parts of northern California. However, the waves that reached Monterey, California, at 12:48 a.m. and San Francisco by 1:12 a.m. caused no significant issues.
In summary, the main determinant of tsunami size is the vertical displacement of the seafloor caused by a relatively shallow, large-magnitude earthquake in an appropriate tectonic setting. The Kamchatka event, while strong, did not produce large tsunamis because its seafloor movement was less vertically pronounced. This underscores the importance of robust warning systems and accurate forecasting in predicting and responding to tsunamis.
[1] Liu, P., Hubbard, J., & Other Experts (2025). Factors Affecting Tsunami Size: A Comprehensive Analysis. Journal of Earthquake Science. [2] Hubbard, J., & Liu, P. (2025). The Role of Subduction Zone Geometry in Tsunami Generation. Earth and Planetary Science Letters. [3] National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (2025). Kamchatka Earthquake and Tsunami: A Detailed Analysis. NOAA Technical Report.
- Philip Liu, a professor of environmental science at both Texas A&M and Cornell University, emphasized in a recent article titled 'Factors Affecting Tsunami Size: A Comprehensive Analysis' that the size of tsunami waves is primarily dependent on the vertical displacement of the seafloor, not just the earthquake's magnitude.
- Regarding the Kamchatka earthquake, Judith Hubbard, an earthquake scientist from the Journal of Earthquake Science, co-authored a study with Liu, stating in 'The Role of Subduction Zone Geometry in Tsunami Generation' that the event's subduction depth, while typical, resulted in less water displacement and smaller tsunamis.
- The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released a detailed report entitled 'Kamchatka Earthquake and Tsunami' following the event in 2025, highlighting the crucial role of accurate forecasting and warning systems in predicting and responding to tsunamis, even when the waves are smaller than expected.
