Exploding Trump's ambitious legislative proposal contributes to an excess of 7 billion tonnes in U.S. greenhouse gas emissions
The One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB), signed into law by former President Trump in 2025, has marked a significant change in the clean energy landscape, rolling back incentives established under the Biden administration's Inflation Reduction Act (IRA).
The OBBB eliminates most renewable energy tax credits starting in 2026 for new projects, which were previously extended through 2032 under the IRA. This move is expected to slow the U.S. energy transition, leading to increased greenhouse gas emissions compared to Biden-era policies.
As a direct consequence, consumers can expect higher energy costs. The estimated rise in residential electricity prices by 2026 is 7%, amounting to approximately $110 annually.
The OBBB also promotes increased fossil fuel consumption, with revived oil and gas lease sales and relaxed regulations boosting production. This contrasts sharply with the Biden administration's approach, which emphasized clean energy and emissions reductions.
Despite these rollbacks, greenhouse gas emissions are still projected to decline between 27% and 44% below 2005 levels by 2035 under current policies with the OBBB. However, these reductions are significantly less ambitious than what was targeted under Biden's climate agenda with IRA support.
The IRA focused heavily on expanding tax credits and incentives for renewable energy projects, promoting clean energy investment to accelerate emissions reductions, and generating substantial clean energy job growth. The OBBB dismantles many such provisions, which experts warn will hamper decades-long U.S. climate goals, increase pollution, raise energy prices, and lead to job losses in clean energy sectors.
In summary, the OBBB marks a strategic pivot away from Biden's clean energy and greenhouse gas reduction targets towards greater fossil fuel development and reduced federal clean energy support. This move undermines efforts to accelerate renewable energy growth and climate progress in the U.S.
Furthermore, the OBBB's trajectory out to 2030 has been compared to a straight-line pathway towards the official U.S. climate target for 2030, as set out in the U.S.' nationally determined contribution under the Paris Agreement. However, the bill's impact on emissions has been modelled by the REPEAT Project, revealing that under the new bill, cumulative new solar capacity additions are expected to drop by 29 gigawatts (GW) by 2030 and around 140GW by 2035.
The annual output of Indonesia, the world's sixth-largest emitter, is roughly equivalent to the emissions shortfall each year, highlighting the potential global implications of the OBBB. In the state of Wyoming, electricity prices may rise by as much as 30% over the next year, while other Republican states, such as North Carolina and Tennessee, are also expected to see near-term price rises in the double digits.
The removal of electric vehicle tax credits could result in tens of millions fewer electric cars and vans being sold, further exacerbating the issue of greenhouse gas emissions. The OBBB's impact on the U.S.' climate goals and energy landscape is significant and far-reaching, and its consequences will be felt for years to come.
- The OBBB, signed into law by former President Trump, appears to mark a change in the clean energy landscape, with its elimination of most renewable energy tax credits slowing the U.S. energy transition and leading to increased carbon emissions.
- The IRA, signed by President Biden, heavily focused on expanding tax credits and incentives for renewable energy projects, promoting clean energy investment to accelerate emissions reductions, and generating substantial clean energy job growth.
- The OBBB dismantles many such provisions, with experts warning that this will hamper US climate goals, increase pollution, raise energy prices, and lead to job losses in clean energy sectors.
- The OBBB's trajectory out to 2030 has been compared to a straight-line pathway towards the official US climate target for 2030, as set out in the Paris Agreement. However, the bill's impact on emissions has been modeled by the REPEAT Project, revealing that under the new bill, cumulative new solar capacity additions are expected to drop significantly.
- The removal of electric vehicle tax credits could result in tens of millions fewer electric cars and vans being sold, further exacerbating the issue of greenhouse gas emissions.
- The annual output of Indonesia, the world's sixth-largest emitter, is roughly equivalent to the emissions shortfall each year, highlighting the potential global implications of the OBBB.
