Expert Predictions for Kentucky Derby: Top Picks to Win

Get ready for the 151st running of the Kentucky Derby with our VSiN experts' suggestions and insights.

Dave Tuley

The Kentucky Derby, a celebrated event as American as baseball and the Masters, showcases only three-year-old racehorses. This year's festivities return to the traditional date of the first Saturday in May, after the COVID-19 pandemic forced a delay to the first Saturday in September last year.

Traditionally, the top contenders are those who have dominated preliminary races. Interestingly, the odds-on favorite has faltered in the last six Derbies, since Justify's victory in 2018.

In this VSiN Betting Guide, I'll break down my top contenders into the most likely winner and longshot value plays. While I'll discuss my exotic wagers later in the week, here's a sneak peek at my top picks.

MOST LIKELY WINNER

#8 Journalism (3-1 morning line): Journalism, a colt by Curlin, reigns as this year's morning-line favorite with an impressive four-race winning streak. He's fresh off his even-money win in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby, a race I have a certain sentiment for, as a journalist and handicapper in the horse racing and sports betting world. Although my "dog or pass" philosophy aims me away from betting the favorite, Journalism's exceptional running style and lucky hole in the No. 8 position will surely be part of my exotic wagers. His ability to tackle traffic and avoid any repeat of the losing streaks from the past six Derbies give him a strong edge.

LONGSHOTS TO CONSIDER

#3 Final Gambit (30-1): With a 20-horse field, we're allowed to break our rule of betting just one horse to win, as it's boosted our chances of cashing tickets in the past, including those of War Emblem and Giacomo. Although none of these horses stood out, several long shots with a battery of young jockeyshave peaked my interest. Our first price play this year is Final Gambit. Despite starting in the ninth position of the ten-horse field in the Louisiana Derby, he sprinted past the pack to win by three and a half lengths. A longshot winner like Dornoch, who captured my heart last year at 15-1, albeit in a different race, is within reach. Final Gambit's late-drive abilities, combined with his victory in the half-mile climb to glory at Turfway Park, position him to push the frontrunners in the Derby's longer distance.

#14 Tiztastic (20-1): A jockey named Joel Rosario is being reunited with Tiztastic, a deep-closing colt who started in the ninth position of ten in the Louisiana Derby. With a dynamic come-from-behind victory, he overpowered the competition to win by two and a quarter lengths. While he's proven to be inconsistent, his unique running style could gain him the advantage of a good position at Churchill Downs, despite only limited experience racing there. I'm betting he'll improve on his shown potential by giving his all on the first Saturday in May.

#21 Baeza (12-1): If you're joining us halfway through the week, keep an eye on Baeza, a late-developing colt that didn't make his racing debut until December. In just three races, he finally found his stride with a second-place finish in the Santa Anita Derby, behind Journalism. A similar story unfolded three years ago, when #21 Rich Strike blew away the competition at 80-1 on first Saturday in September. If Baeza earns his spot in the starting gate, he'll have a better chance of aligning with the expectations set for him, unlike Rich Strike's surprising triumph.

See you at VSiN.com for our updated picks and exotic wagers, as we gear up for Oaks Day on Friday and Derby Day on Saturday. Happy Handicapping!

Ed Sehon

As in many years, we're faced with an array of viable win contenders for the Derby. I've whittled my top picks down to three promising horses for this column.

Our top choice is BURNHAM SQUARE (12-1), a come-from-behind success story in the Blue Grass at Keeneland last month. His notable victory solidified my confidence that he can match the Derby's increased distance. I can't overstate the improvements he's displayed in each race, with his BSF (Beyer Speed Figures) escalating after every appearance.

Another strong choice is the morning-line favorite, JOURNALISM (3-1), boasting four victories this season. His unblemished streak has kept him at the top of the West Coast leaderboard. Despite missing out on several opportunities to face tougher East Coast competitors, his undeniable ability, combined with a recovered journalist and hunch-playing grinder's esteem, earns him a top spot on our list.

Lastly, we're taking a leap of faith on EAST AVENUE (20-1). His trainer, Brendan Walsh, demonstrated impressive results in a recently-concluded Keeneland meet. Building on his recent victory at the Blue Grass, this well-bred colt seems poised to surge ahead towards the lead on the first Saturday in May. Coupled with the skilled jockey Manny Franco at the reins, East Avenue is not to be overlooked in the Kentucy Derby.

EAST AVENUE (20-1)JOURNALISM (3-1)BURNHAM SQUARE (12-1)

Aaron Halterman

Top 4: #8 Journalism #14 Tiztastic #17 Sandman#18 Sovereignty

Journalism has held onto my number one position for months now, and he hasn't given me any reason to question him for the Derby. His Santa Anita Derby performance shines the brightest, and he looks primed for a top performance at Churchill Downs. His late-pace figures and mid-pack running style pay dividends, positioning him for a contending spot from the get-go.

Tiztastic has a devoted following in my camp, likely due to his strong comeback performance in the Louisiana Derby. I expect this longshot to deftly weave through traffic and deliver a compelling late charge in the Derby. His ability to stretch out distances should also play into his hand.

Sandman presents a mysterious case, as he stands out both for his rarity as an emotional immature colt and his remarkable Arkansas Derby victory. While the massive Derby field and rambunctious Churchill Downs crowd may unsettle him, those factors could also allow his raw talent to shine. I'll maintain a cautious optimism towards his overall performance on Saturday.

Sovereignty's Florida Derby loss might be a setback for some, but we're hopeful that his trainer, Bill Mott, can work his magic and get him in peak shape for the race. You can count on Mott to coax top performances from his charges on the biggest day, so look for Sovereignty to come roaring down the stretch.

Jeremy Plonk (1/ST BET)

In the spirit of my late friend Neumy, I candidly acknowledge that the Kentucky Derby can stir a great deal of overthinking amongst spectators. Neumy warned us that paralyzing analysis is as detrimental as being unprepared for the race. As a seasoned professional handicapper, my advice is to trust in the strength of the field's top contenders and remain open to unexpected surprises.

Assessing the current field, I place my trust in two horses that I firmly believe excel in these categories - Journalism and Sovereignty. Journalism has proven himself to be a consistent performer, holding a spot atop my list for several months now. His Santa Anita Derby run filled me with confidence heading into the Derby race. Should traffic or other distractions arise, his seasoned jockey, Umberto Rispoli, has the experience to navigate on his behalf.

Sovereignty's Florida Derby loss may be a disappointing memory, but his larger ambitions lie ahead. The Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott carries a stellar reputation and has shown a knack for readying his horses to deliver peak performances on the world stage. Look for this resilient colt to stage a memorable finish on the first Saturday in May.

In my efforts to balance caution and excitement, I'll forsake win bets with low odds, taking advantage of the trifectas and superfectas within the massive 20-horse field. The beauty of the Derby gambling system lies in the long odds of exotic wagers, potentially delivering massive payoffs that can lift your spirits regardless of the ultimate victor. I'll add Luxor Cafe and Admire Daytona from Japan, as well as Final Gambit, to my trifectas and superfectas.

Derby Selections:JournalismLuxor CaféSovereigntyFinal Gambit

As for Oaks Day on Friday, things appear to be stable for Good Cheer, the favorite. However, I propose keeping an eye on Simply Joking, La Cara, and Ballerina d'Oro to mix up your exacta tickets.

Oaks Selections:Simply Joking La CaraGood Cheer Ballerina d'Oro

Millie Ball (1/ST BET)

I anticipate a highly competitive pace for this year's Derby, likely featuring as many as six horses jostling for the lead position. With that in mind, I've narrowed down my picks to four horses to consider based on their pace and overall abilities for the 10-furlong race.

Firstly, I include Rodriguez, the only early speed horse in the running, thanks to jockey Mike Smith. His speed will surely benefit from the competitiveness within the field, setting an engaging stage for the race.

Next, I point to Luxor Cafe, who hails from Japan. I find solace in his pedigree and expect him to thrive in this competition.

Journalism strikes me as a clear standout in the field, boasting an unblemished record of four-straight victories. His exceptional late pace figures, combined with a top-notch trainer, set him apart from the rest.

Finally, I'll place my bets on Sovereignty. This colt exhibits a promising trajectory following his solid second-place finish in the Florida Derby. Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott has shown a knack for readying his horses for significant races, so I'm confident that Sovereignty will push hard right from the lead when the going gets tough. I'll box these four in the exactas.

Derby Selections: Sovereignty Luxor Cafe Journalism Rodriguez

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After a long wait, the 151st Kentucky Derby will take place on Saturday, breaking the unusually delayed tradition caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.
This year's Derby, filled with 20 contenders, promises a mix of favorites and longshots, as predictions and betting trends shape up.
Among the most probable winners, #8 Journalism has been a consistent standout with a four-race winning streak and a remarkable victory in the Santa Anita Derby.
In the horse-racing world, betting trends rarely lead to a repeat of the past six Derbies, where the odds-on favorite has struggled since Justify's victory in 2018, giving excitement for the underdogs.