Can Ukraine Hold Its Ground Without the USA? A Look at Ukraine's Strategies Beyond the Western Alliance
"Expectations pinned on the incoming German Chancellor"
In the face of ongoing conflict with Russia, Ukrainian experts and officials are considering possible paths to survive and potentially thrive without relying heavily on the United States. With Germany stepping up as a key player, what does this mean for Ukraine's future?
While Russia celebrates the anniversary of its victory over the Nazis on Red Square, Ukrainian experts in Kyiv huddle to discuss strategies for withstanding the aggressor without the full support of the Western alliance. The painful reality of diminishing transatlantic support under US President Donald Trump and the seemingly distant prospect of peace raises crucial questions about the war's outcome, and the role other countries, like Germany, can play in tipping the scales.
Former President Petro Poroschenko, in a casual conversation on the sidelines of the Kyiv Security Forum, voiced his hopes for Chancellor Olaf Scholz. He spoke of his recent conversation with the new German leader, claiming to have been deeply impressed by Scholz's commitment to asserting Germany's leadership role in Europe. Everyone understands that the support of Ukraine extends beyond purely Ukrainian interests, but rather, this investment bolsters security across the continent as a whole.
The Politics of Alliance and Conflict
The frayed relations between Western nations in the wake of Trump's presidency have left many countries, like Ukraine, uncertain of where their support lies. As Russian troops occupy Ukrainian territory for over a decade, the country remains skeptical of the Western alliance's resolve. This apprehension serves as a driving force behind discussions at the Kyiv Security Forum, where experts from Germany and beyond converge to explore Ukraine's predicament.
Yatsenyuk, Ukraine's former Prime Minister, invoked the memories of the past, drawing parallels to the 1938 Munich Agreement, warning that striking deals with an aggressor like Hitler can have catastrophic consequences. Today, Putin follows a different playbook, engendering ambiguity and weakening western unity.
Trump's former Ukraine envoy, Kurt Volker, was interviewed at the forum, shedding light on the White House's approach to peace negotiations. Volker asserted that Putin would never willingly accept peace, emphasizing the importance of military deterrence instead. He argued that the Trump administration sanctioned immense pressure on Ukraine but placed minimal demands on Russia, perpetuating the conflict. Acknowledging the need for Russian deterrence, Volker insisted, could encourage Moscow to consider ceasefire negotiations.
History as Prologue: Drones and Military Success
In the realm of contemporary warfare, the ubiquity of drones—instruments of precision and speed—play a crucial role in determining battlefield outcomes. Commander Vyacheslav Shutenko, who heads a battalion specializing in unmanned systems, emphasized the significance of these technologies in modern warfare. Shutenko believes that Ukraine's drone capabilities are currently insufficient for decisive victories and calls for increased production and continuous drone supply to the Ukrainian military.
The battlefield of today, Shutenko suggests, relies heavily on innovative technologies designed to protect soldier lives while maintaining an edge over adversaries. As the will to survive and adapt drives the rapid development of innovative defense solutions in Ukraine, allied nations like Germany, the UK, and Portugal can benefit from these advancements in the field.
Despite the indispensable role that drones play in Ukraine's future military success, they cannot single-handedly secure victory. Shutenko highlights the importance of well-trained personnel, efficient air defense, and sustained international support through multilateral alliances, diplomatic efforts, and military aid.
The Path to Peace: Lessons from the Past
Security expert Julia Kazdobina, director of the Ukrainian Foundation for Security Research, spoke candidly of the ineffective peace negotiations thus far, asserting that the US government's approach has largely missed the mark. Kazdobina criticized the administration's failure to consider the war's historical and causal factors, maintaining an equitable stance between Ukraine and Russia. This impartial approach, she argues, ignores Russia's status as the aggressor and could ultimately exacerbate the situation rather than foster mutually beneficial peace.
Countries like Germany, Kazdobina suggested, are already at war in a more covert sense, as Russian military doctrine dictates the use of hybrid warfare tactics before overt confrontation on the battlefield. By recognizing these threats and standing in solidarity with Ukraine, Europe can work together to bolster Ukraine's defenses and set an example for the rest of the world.
Steven Pifer, a former US ambassador to Ukraine, insists that involving the United States remains important but urges Ukraine to develop a contingency plan, or "Plan B," to ensure stability in the absence of US support.
- Attack on Ukraine
- Ukraine
- Russia
- Germany
- Friedrich Merz
- Ceasefire
- Arms shipment
- Donald Trump
- Vladimir Putin
Taking the Lead: Germany and Europe in Ukraine's Defense
With Germany poised to provide Ukraine with Patriot air-defense missile systems and facilitate increased funding for Ukrainian defense industries, a shift toward stronger European-led defense support infrastructure is underway. This new direction, aimed at increasing Ukraine's self-reliance and alleviating pressure on Western stockpiles, will culminate in an integrated Ukrainian defense industry that contributes to both immediate wartime needs and long-term rebuilding efforts.
Innovating on the Battlefield: Drones and Precision Strike Technologies
A focus on drone technology and long-range precision strike capabilities can replace large-scale troop deployments in conflicts. Through investments in cutting-edge defense technologies such as high-energy lasers and high-powered microwaves, Ukraine can defend itself efficiently against Russian drone and missile attacks. With the support of European partners, Ukraine can facilitate co-production and experimentation initiatives to develop these innovative systems.
Future Defense Concepts and Strategic Reserves
To ensure long-term security, Ukraine is exploring the development of new defense plans, integrating civil society, cyber defense, and technological workforce mobilization into strategic reserves. This shift away from traditional U.S.-style reserves toward a model that combines military readiness with economic reconstruction and digital mobilization can be supported by European allies through knowledge sharing and collaborative defense planning.
Building a Multilateral Coalition for Long-Term Security
In a bid to secure sustained security guarantees, Ukraine aims to form coalitions with European nations beyond mere temporary aid. This cooperation emphasizes deeper integration into European defense frameworks and economic support mechanisms designed to maintain Ukraine's sovereignty and defense capabilities post-conflict. Support from European allies will be crucial as Ukraine transitions toward greater independence and stability in the wake of ongoing conflict.
- The ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia raises questions about Ukraine's ability to withstand Russia's aggression without substantial support from the United States, prompting discussions about potential strategies in the absence of full western alliance support.
- Germany, with Chancellor Olaf Scholz at the helm, has emerged as a key player in Ukraine's future, and its commitment to asserting leadership in Europe is seen as crucial for Ukraine's security and economic stability.
- In a moving speech at the Kyiv Security Forum, former Prime Minister of Ukraine, Yatsenyuk, drew parallels between the current political climate and the 1938 Munich Agreement, urging caution when negotiating with an aggressive power like Russia.
- As the role of drone technology becomes increasingly significant in modern warfare, Ukraine is seeking to improve its drone capabilities, with a focus on precision and speed to achieve decisive victories. However, this reliance on technology must be complemented by well-trained personnel, efficient air defense, and sustained international support from multilateral allies like Germany, the UK, and Portugal.
