Chaos on the Streets and Screens: Russia's Influence Rears its Head off the Web
Expanded Sphere of Russian Influence Surpasses Digital Boundaries
In the shadow of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the online battleground for propaganda isn't the only front. Entertaining talk shows and subtle, yet impactful actions on the streets have shown that the Kremlin's influence goes beyond the reach of internet, sending ripples into Western everyday life.
Labels of Hatred on Monuments
You'd think stickers were only a game of football supporter banter. But in Vienna, 2022, things turned much darker. After Russia's assault on Ukraine, stickers started appearing that looked like they came from Ukrainian neo-Nazis. Smothered on Soviet memorials and around editorial offices, the stickers called Russians 'pigs' - branded with the symbol of the Ukrainian 'Aswad Regiment'. But the pieces were more than they seemed. Intelligence agencies uncovered that this sticker campaign was spearheaded by none other than Moscow, seeking to bolster Russian propaganda demonizing Kyiv as a 'Nazi regime.' This revelation exposed the reality that Kremlin's attempts to sway opinion do not halt at the widely debated propaganda on the internet. Instead, they persist, taking root in real-life Western daily life, and their methods are anything but conventional.
Agents of Deception
The sticker campaign originated from a team led by Bulgarian Orlin Roussev, allegedly guided by the now-wanted former Wirecard manager, Jan Marsalek. A London court found Bulgarian Orlov and two women, part of a six-member gang, guilty of spying in early March. Austria's intelligence service, DSN, has new findings that suggest the Bulgarian gang was also involved in propagating pro-Russian narratives alongside traditional espionage.
They hired Zwetinka "Zweti" Doncheva in Vienna. Doncheva, mother of the group, allegedly spied on Kremlin-opponents like journalist Christo Grozev for Roussev. Yet, her role didn't end there as Doncheva was also responsible for spreading pro-Russian, or defamatory, content on behalf of Russian intelligence services. Post her arrest, Doncheva admitted her part in the spy cell operation in 2022. She was released from prison and is once again at large. Propaganda operations like the Vienna sticker fiasco, according to Austrian intelligence, are 'significant factors in Russia's hybrid warfare.'
Echoes of an Old Tactic
This particular type of information manipulation in the public sphere has a long history dating back to Soviet times, now known as "active measures." Dietmar Pichler, the Austrian disinformation analyst and initiator of the "Disinfo Resilience Network," explains, "Even in post-war Germany, the Soviets daubed swastikas on walls with the intent of slowing down European integration and undermining rapprochement with France."
Today, this form of manipulation remains a part of Russia's foreign influence repertoire, according to Pichler. Furthermore, he cites an example from Austria after October 7, 2023, where David stars were graffitied in Jewish neighborhoods - a reminder of the Nazis' discriminatory markings. This operation, like the sticker campaign, had Russian ties, according to Pichler.
Cyberattacks on the Rise
Behind Russia's propaganda war stands the 5th department "for operative information and international relations" of the Russian domestic intelligence service FSB, with whom Marsalek might be associated. In recent years, this department reportedly fostered significant cyber capabilities, along with brigades of agents and online warriors working to spread pro-Russian narratives, both from Russia and target states.
These covert operations have surpassed the significance of propaganda broadcasters like the now-banned Russian channel RT, according to a recent EU report on the threat of foreign influence. These networks and channels behind this propaganda are often hidden, as it's challenging to find clear attribution.
Europe and the USA under Attack
Russian influence is a cause of concern for the German government as well. In June 2024, the "Central Office for the Detection and Analysis of Foreign Information Manipulation" (ZEAM) was established. This office's twelve employees are dedicated to monitoring the methods, distribution channels, and mechanisms of foreign interference. According to the Federal Ministry of the Interior (BMI), Russian state bodies, state-affiliated media, and pro-Kremlin accounts spread disinformation, trying to manipulate public opinion and create societal divisions.
Since 2022, the Kremlin has been greatly expanding the distribution of pro-Russian and anti-Western narratives. Themes like immigration, the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine, and terrorist attacks are often used to further propoganda[1]. There is also an effort to portray Germany as economically and politically in decline,questioning the unity of the EU and its member states, or denying man-made climate change.
Homegrown Propagandists
Disinformation expert Dietmar Pichler highlights that while online examples of influence operations are numerous, there is still a lack of clarity regarding cells of agents perpetrating misinformation in public spaces. These cells might have been active for a long time but have yet to appear in existing EU reports, which center on the latest developments.
Influence Agents in the German-speaking World
Somehow connected to or sympathetic to Russia, these agents persuade through covert or pseudo-covert means. They disseminate narratives favorable to the authoritarian regime, often exploiting their status as journalists, experts, or academics.
According to Pichler, figures like Putin biographer and journalist Hubert Seipel or economist Jeffrey Sachs are illustrative examples. These 'influential communicators' have relatively mild stances on Russia but sharply denounce the West and Ukraine, distorting the truth in a subtle yet powerful way.
Pichler emphasizes that while not all voices that relativize the Russian invasion are controlled or funded by Moscow, they still have a considerable impact on public discourse.
Coordination is Key
Sticker campaigns, talk shows, or subtle online operations—when aligned, these different forms of influence prove potent, working like the instruments in a carefully orchestrated band, subtle yet effective. The spread of sticker campaigns from Telegram channels, for example, is attractive to users and can quickly snowball into a talk show conversation topic, just as statements from talk show guests can resurface in social networks years or even decades later, fueled by trolls.
References:[1] ntv.de[2] gov.uk
- The revelation of the sticker campaign in Vienna, led by a Bulgarian team allegedly guided by Russian influences, highlights the European Union's concern about the Kremlin's attempts to sway opinion beyond the internet.
- Dietmar Pichler, the Austrian disinformation analyst, notes that the use of stickers and graffiti is a historical tactic of Russian influence, dating back to Soviet times, with examples like the intentionally daubed swastikas on walls in post-war Germany.
- Coordination is key in Russia's strategic approach to influence operations. Stickers, talk shows, and subtle online operations, when aligned, function like a carefully orchestrated band, influencing public opinion with subtle yet effective methods.
