Examining Taiwan's Recent Election Results Through Donovan's Alternative Approach
In the recent 2022 legislative elections, a notable trend emerged that mirrored the 2020 presidential election in terms of voter numbers. The total number of voters remained identical in both elections.
In the constituency voting, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) maintained a slight edge over the Kuomintang (KMT), with the DPP securing 45.11% of the vote in 2020 and 45.09% in 2022, compared to the KMT's 40.71% in 2020 and 39.96% in 2022.
However, the DPP suffered losses in the 2022 elections due to KMT Chairman Eric Chu's ability to mobilise votes in key constituencies. Conversely, DPP Chairman William Lai struggled to secure votes where they mattered most.
Interestingly, third parties won eight party list seats in both elections. In the party list legislative vote, the DPP saw a slight increase in their vote share, from 33.98% in 2020 to 36.16% in 2022, while the KMT saw a slight decrease, from 33.36% in 2020 to 34.58% in 2022.
The DPP's vote share in the 2022 local elections was similar to their vote share in 2018. Contrastingly, the KMT secured a landslide victory in the 2022 local elections, increasing their vote share slightly from 2018.
Despite the DPP's losses in the 2022 local elections, they have managed to win the 2024 presidential election three times in a row. The KMT's success in the local elections, however, suggests that swing voters in Taiwan prefer to give the KMT control of local government, the DPP the presidency, and split the difference between the two parties on the party list, while giving third parties the balance of power.
It is worth noting that during recent recall campaigns, both the KMT and the DPP faced defeats when attempting to unseat each other's lawmakers. The identity of the KMT chairman who decisively won the party elections in 2022 could not be definitively determined from the search results, although former KMT chairwoman Hung Hsiu-chu was mentioned, there is no indication she won the 2022 elections.
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