Evolution of Donald Trump's Stance on Iran Military Involvement
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Let's dive straight into what's been brewing:
- Trump's military escalation dance
- The Fed's cautious economic landscape
- A possible US attack on Iran – let's go
Is he dashing, or just waltzing around?
Trump hinted at a potential military confrontation with Iran yesterday, saying the upcoming week would be "spectacular." So, what's in store for us? The President was rather vague about his intentions, mentioning that he might or might not choose to engage.
"I might do it, I might not. Nobody knows what I'm going to do," he said in the White House huddle.
The Oval Office was next, where Trump admitted to reporters that he enjoys making game-time decisions, especially when it comes to war.
A trio of high-level meetings lie ahead as Trump weighs the possibility of joining forces with Israel against Iran.
When contemplating whether to attack Iran, the White House must consider how Tehran could retaliate. Potential responses could include bombing US military bases, cyber attacks, terrorism, regional hubbub, or disrupting oil shipments from the Gulf – as warned by former national security officials.
Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has openly threatened "substantial damage" if the US were to get involved.
Iran is ready for a counterstrike against the US, boasting a range of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and drones that could be unleashed on American targets. But don't let their posturing fool you – whether they'll act immediately remains up for debate. According to former Air Force secretary Frank Kendall, such a move "poses an escalation question for Iran" and necessitates careful consideration of the potential consequences.
Unfortunately for Trump, embarking on a military mission in Iran could have serious political consequences. The right-wing populace is firmly divided, with Trump backers split on what action he should take.
One prominent voice is Steve Bannon, former chief strategist to Trump, who cautioned against another Middle Eastern conflict, "We can't do this again. We'll leave the country divided. We can't have another Iraq."
In our latest live blog update, follow the escalating events unfolding between Israel and Iran.
Recent Headlines
- Fed pelts down the US economic outlook, with policymakers debating whether they can cut interest rates this year.
- Foreign investors' stash of US government debt plummeted modestly in April despite fluctuations in the Treasury market following "liberation day".
- Construction in US residential dwellings reached a five-year low in May, with builders struggling to cope with Trump's tariffs, high mortgage rates, and an oversupply of inventory.
- The president is set to re-extend the US ban on TikTok for a third time, preparing an executive order as the Chinese-owned social media platform approaches its deadline to sell its stake to meet American requirements.
What we're hearing
So, what would a US attack on Iran truly entail?
In a heart-to-heart with retired four-star general Joseph Votel, former head of US Central Command, he shed light on the potential tactics of such an operation.
A successful strike on Iran's Fordow nuclear facility, nestled under a mountain, would require managing "controls on the environment's variables," such as air defense systems and electronic warfare.
The US might employ GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator bombs, also known as "bunker busters," to pulverize the underground facility. These leviathans can only be lugged by stealth B-2 bombers, capable of carrying two of these 30,000-pound giants.
The logistics of such an operation aren't impossible for the Pentagon and Centcom, but "there are significant, although not insurmountable difficulties," according to Votel.
To carry out the mission, the US may dispatch four or five B-2 bombers to the US-UK base on Diego Garcia – enough to get the job done and have extra aircraft in reserve. These bombers are likely to be joined by other planes equipped with GPS or laser guidance to execute the strike.
The US has already positioned air-to-air refueling aircraft in Europe, ready to refill US or Israeli warplanes taking part in the mission.
In the event of a strike, the US would target Fordow multiple times: "Our targeting process is to target, appraise, and then retarget," Votel explained.
Viewpoints
- As Trump prepares to make a life-altering decision on Iran, he risks sustaining another disastrous Middle Eastern intervention, asserts our editorial board.
- Nippon Steel's acquisition of US Steel symbolizes the dawn of shareholder sacrifice capitalism, according to Leo Lewis.
- The anti-war camp on the right is slowly aligning with the anti-war camp on the left as Trump contemplates employing US military might to confront Iran, argues Gideon Rachman.
- The power of US exceptionalism is on the wane, but it hasn't entirely disappeared, claims Grace Peters, co-global head of investment strategy for JPMorgan Private Bank.
- Reckless US policymakers can dismantle vital economic institutions, as a reminder from former central banker Raghuram Rajan – but strong institutions alone can't fix broken politics.
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- The Federal Reserve is debating whether to cut interest rates this year, as they pelt down the US economic outlook.
- In a military confrontation with Iran, the potential responses from Tehran could include bombing US military bases, cyber attacks, terrorism, regional hubbub, or disrupting oil shipments from the Gulf.
- The editorial board of White House Watch is concerned that another disastrous Middle Eastern intervention may result from Trump's decision regarding Iran.
- When considering a potential US attack on Iran, former Air Force secretary Frank Kendall advises careful examination of the potential consequences, as such a move "poses an escalation question for Iran."
