Evaluating NFL Draft Evaluations for Future Forecasts
Using NFL Draft Grades for Future Predictions:
The NFL is a voracious, 24/7 machine, and nothing is scrutinized more each offseason than the three-day spectacle known as the draft. Every expert and grader sings its praises, implying that draft weekend holds mega-importance when determining a team's future success. So, could a team's draft grade instantly transform its fortunes in the upcoming season or two? Let's find out.
I've been logging draft grades since 2016 and revisiting them annually. For my analysis, I rely on reliable sources like Sports Illustrated—their full draft assessment is typically released within 24 hours of the final pick. Over the past decade, I've tracked their grades, and I've only seen nine below a C- and just ten A+ grades, with the 2025 Giants receiving one this year.
Putting the massive significance attached to these grades under the microscope, I compared the regular season win-loss records over recent years to the grades assigned by SI. Guess what? I couldn't find any concrete evidence to support the notion that the draft had a substantial direct impact on a team's fortunes in the near term.
Of course, players picked each year don't mean nothing to the team's future. But immediate improvement or decline is typically caused by injury issues, free agent signings, coaching changes, statistical anomalies, and momentum swings. So, fixing your team's draft grade won't ensure a futures wager in your favor.
Despite the minimal impact, there's greater credibility in sources that revisit and "reevaluate" drafts years later. This kind of analysis is far more accurate in a few years, allowing us to assess the quality of picks after they've developed into established players.
Take a gander at this table showing the 1-year, 2-year, 3-year, and 4-year difference in eventual regular-season wins for teams assigned grades since 2018.
Grade | Avg Win +/- 1-yr, 2-yr, 3-yr, 4-yr------|-----------------------------A's | +0.63, +1.15, +1.22, +1.06B's | -0.19, -0.05, +0.0, +0.39C/D's | +0.04, -0.15, -0.03, +0.15
As you can see, the "A" grades generally showed consistent improvement, whereas the "B" level grades fared little to no better than the worst marks. And the grades at the extreme lower end, C or below, mostly turned out to be misses.
Looking closer at potential win improvements from past draft grades, we can find teams that theoretically could improve from their records of that season for 2025 based on their draft grades at the time. Here are teams that theoretically should see improvements based on past draft grades.
2025 A Grades (2024 Record)- New York Giants: A+, 3-14- Pittsburgh Steelers: A, 10-7- Seattle Seahawks: A, 10-7
2024 A Grades (2023 Record)- Atlanta Falcons: A, 7-10- Chicago Bears: A+, 7-10- Detroit Lions: A, 12-5- Los Angeles Rams: A, 10-7- Pittsburgh Steelers: A, 10-7- Washington Commanders: A+, 4-13
2023 A Grades (2022 Record)- Carolina Panthers: A, 7-10- Houston Texans: A, 3-13-1- Philadelphia Eagles: A+, 14-3- Pittsburgh Steelers: A, 9-8
2022 A Grades (2021 Record)- Baltimore Ravens: A+, 8-9- Detroit Lions: A, 3-13-1- Green Bay Packers: A, 13-4- Indianapolis Colts: A, 9-8- Kansas City Chiefs: A, 12-5- New York Jets: A, 4-13- Philadelphia Eagles: A+, 9-8
Even though these improvements are theoretically possible, they'll only lead to minimal gains for these teams, as the average improvement expected for the 2025 season is around +0.63 wins for A-grade teams. So, while these teams might improve over their 2024 season, they'll still likely struggle to compete for the top spots.
In conclusion, these findings suggest that the NFL draft has limited impact on a team's immediate success. Although the grades don't accurately predict significant improvement or decline, they do serve as a source of entertainment and can occasionally signal potential hidden gems or busts. But they should never form the basis for season futures wagers. Keep in mind that other factors, like injuries, free agency, coaching changes, and momentum swings, play more crucial roles in shaping a team's fortunes. In my opinion, there's more merit in sources that reevaluate drafts after a few seasons and allow us to analyze the long-term impact of draft picks.
- The NFL Draft, particularly the grades assigned by Sports Illustrated, is a heavily scrutinized aspect of the offseason, often suggested to hold significant importance for a team's future success.
- Over the past decade, only nine draft grades have been below a C-, and just ten A+ grades have been awarded, with the 2025 Giants receiving the latest A+ grade.
- A direct correlation between draft grades and a team's near-term fortunes has not been evident in recent years, with factors like injury issues, free agent signings, coaching changes, statistical anomalies, and momentum swings appearing to have a more substantial impact on immediate improvement or decline.
- Sources that revisit and re-evaluate drafts years later provide a more accurate assessment, as it allows for the evaluation of picks after they've developed into established players.
- By analyzing the 1-year, 2-year, 3-year, and 4-year difference in regular-season wins for teams assigned grades since 2018, it's been observed that "A" grades generally showed consistent improvement, while "B" level grades fared poorly in comparison.
- Although teams with high draft grades in the past might theoretically improve their records for 2025, the expected improvement is minimal, suggesting that these teams will continue to struggle to compete for top spots, reinforcing the notion that the NFL draft has limited impact on a team's immediate success.
