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EU's International Diplomacy Strategy

Hitting New Heights: AfD Gains Amidst Coalition Talks

Coalition negotiations witness a resurgence in AfD popularity in surveys - EU's International Diplomacy Strategy

In the thick of coalition negotiations between the Union and the SPD, things are heating up, with talks carrying on well into the following week. optimism lingers as parties inch closer to an early agreement. According to Dobrindt, "the public expects a coalition result that mirrors the election outcome."

Despite this progress, the persistent rise in polls for the AfD continues to hindrance the process. The latest trend for "Bild am Sonntag" records the Union and AfD both snagging 24% in a hypothetical federal election, a 2-point drop for the Union and a 1-point gain for the AfD compared to the previous week. At the February election, the Union led with 28.6%, with the AfD following closely behind at 20.8%.

Currently, the SPD remains steady at 16%, while the Greens and the Left both stand at 11%. The BSW and FDP fall under the 5% threshold at 4%. The Insa Institute conducted the survey from March 31 to April 4, with a maximum error tolerance of 2.9 percentage points.

Alice Weidel, AfD party leader, responded to the latest poll on the internet service X, stating that "one can no longer bypass the AfD." She advocated for a "real conservative political revolution," as the public desires "no more left-wing government."

Greens criticized CDU leader Friedrich Merz for the renewed strengthening of the right-wing extremist AfD. Merz, in their view, has "adopted positions of the AfD and stoked fears." Green parliamentary group deputy Andreas Audretsch accused Merz of lying about wind turbines and promised military spending, alleging that the AfD benefits from Merz's dishonesty.

Manfred Weber, chairman of the conservative EVP group in the European Parliament, urged a swift government formation. He emphasized the need for the new government to restore trust in institutions, act on important issues, and provide effective solutions.

The AfD's rise can be attributed to growing frustration with traditional parties and perceptions that they are not in-tune with voters' concerns, specifically immigration and economic issues. The AfD's strong showing in the 2025 elections and the perception that mainstream parties are not adequately addressing concerns has fueled the AfD's popularity[1][5]. Additionally, the AfD has capitalized on a perceived breach of trust by CDU/CSU leader Friedrich Merz and the ongoing coalition talks[3][4].

  1. The coalition between the Union and SPD, despite progressing in negotiations, faces hurdles with the Allegiance for Germany (AfD) gaining momentum, as shown in recent surveys like the one conducted by Insa Institute.
  2. The AfD's increasing popularity is primarily due to voter discontent with traditional parties, particularly over immigration and economic policies, and the perception that these parties fail to address these concerns effectively.
  3. The rise of the AfD has been influenced by the growing sentiment that mainstream parties, such as the CDU/CSU, are betraying the trust of the public and not addressing critical issues with transparency, as suggested byGreen parliamentary group deputy Andreas Audretsch's allegations against CDU leader Friedrich Merz.

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