Prognosis Tool Predicts Disaster for 'Fire' - Eurovision 2025: Sweden tipped for victory—but can The Model get it right this time?
A well-known Eurovision forecasting tool, The Model, has released its predictions for this year's contest. The system, which uses historical data, polls, and betting odds, suggests Sweden will take the top spot. However, its past record shows both hits and notable misses.
The tool forecasts Sweden's entry My System as the winner with 407 points. France and Finland are expected to follow closely, scoring 398 and 373 points respectively. Meanwhile, Austria's Tanzschein is predicted to finish last with zero points.
Last year, *The Model* incorrectly tipped Sweden for victory, only for Austria to win. Despite this, it has a strong track record, correctly predicting wins for Sweden in 2023 (Loreen), Switzerland in 2024 (Nemo), and Austria in 2025 (JJ). It also accurately placed Italy and Ukraine in the top five in previous contests. However, it has made errors, such as underestimating Croatia's second-place finish and overrating France's chances in past years. For Germany, the outlook is bleak. Sarah Engels' song *Fire* is expected to place 24th out of 25, earning just 11 points—5 from juries and 6 from televoting. The track debuted at No. 75 in Germany's singles chart but dropped out after a single week. In 2024, *The Model* had similarly low expectations for Germany's Isaak, predicting last place, though he ultimately finished 12th.
The Model relies on a mix of past Eurovision results, online polls, and musical analysis to shape its forecasts. While its predictions have often aligned with final outcomes, past misjudgements show the contest remains unpredictable. This year's results will test its accuracy once again.
