Europe's self-reliance: Implications and potential consequences for the continent

Europe Must Take a Strong Stand in a Shifting Global Landscape

Europe's self-reliance: Implications and potential consequences for the continent

By Anders Fogh Rasmussen / COPENHAGEN

The familiar global order we've known is fading away. As geopolitics goes through a seismic shift, Europe must keep its institutions alive and resist the return of an era where raw power decides everything - an era where powerful leaders in Washington, Moscow, and Beijing call the shots.

Confronting this challenge demands a serious reflection on long-held beliefs and abandoning outdated orthodoxies. Europeans can't maintain democracy and their way of life solely on soft power. It's time to break free from entrenched taboos and embrace hard power. This is the only way to fend off those who directly threaten our values and interests.

Since US President Donald Trump's return to power, hundreds of billions of euros have been earmarked for defense. However, this isn't enough. Spending 2% of GDP on defense was a reasonable goal for NATO in 2014, when the US still played the role of global peacekeeper. That role has changed. To match Russia's military advancements, Europe needs to at least double its defense expenditure. Ideally, Europe should aim for 4% by 2028, emulating the ambitions of incoming German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk in their respective countries.

Big armies and advanced weapons are just the beginning. If Europe's additional spending is focused only on military procurement, it would miss the opportunity to ignite its own technological revolution. Technological advancements fuel US and Chinese hard power. From AI and quantum computing to critical infrastructure and biotech, Europe risks ossifying while the major powers leap forward. To avoid this, Europe must rethink its community composition and collaborate with like-minded democracies.

A "D7" coalition of democratic countries could foster economic openness, defense partnerships, intelligence-sharing, and access to critical minerals. They could even establish new security arrangements similar to NATO's Article 5, covering cyberkinetic attacks and economic coercion by major powers. The EU should collaborate closely with traditional partners such as the UK and seek closer ties with Canada, Japan, South Korea, New Zealand, and Australia. India, a fast-growing democracy, could also be an essential partner.

For too long, Europe has relied on cheap Russian energy, cheap Chinese goods, and a cheap US security umbrella. That dependence is no longer viable. To complement fiscal resources for defense and technology, Europe must forge a new social contract, advocating for skills and resources that empower Europeans to defend themselves. Although we must preserve European values, we need to rethink some aspects of the old welfare state. Leaders must be honest about the challenges we face and the sacrifices required to navigate this era of crisis.

Every year, I convene the Copenhagen Democracy Summit under my Alliance of Democracies Foundation. Initially, I believed the US would remain at the center of a global democratic alliance. Now, we must prepare for a world where the US may not be reliable, and may even be adversarial and expansionist. Europe's descendants won't forgive us if we fail to step up to the mantle of leader of the free world.

Anders Fogh Rasmussen, a former NATO secretary-general and former prime minister of Denmark, is founder of the Alliance of Democracies Foundation.

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Europe can increase its defense spending, deter threats, and promote technological innovation by:
Relaxing fiscal rules to allocate more funds for defense without additional sanctions for excessive budget deficits.
Accessing low-interest loans for joint procurement projects through the European Investment Bank.
Encouraging private investment from pension funds and insurers to boost defense funding and industry support.
To promote technological innovation, Europe should focus on:
Investing in research and development through programs like the European Defence Fund.
Encouraging multinational collaborations to harness collective expertise and resources.
To build new partnerships, Europe can:
Diversify partnerships beyond traditional allies.
Strengthen ties within existing alliances like NATO and deepen cooperation with countries like Ukraine.
Participate in and support international security initiatives for global stability.
To consolidate the defense industry, Europe can:
Reduce fragmentation to improve efficiency and competitiveness on the global stage.
Implement common procurement programs to achieve economies of scale and reduce overall costs for member states.

European geopolitics necessitates a stronger defense policy in the face of shifting global power dynamics, as highlighted by Anders Fogh Rasmussen's call for Europe to resist a return to an era of raw power.
In response to the increased threat from powers like Russia, Europe must consider doubling its defense expenditure to at least 4% of its GDP by 2028, a goal echoed by incoming German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk.
Beyond military expenditure, Europe should also stimulate its technological revolution, which fuels the hard power of USA and China, focusing on areas like AI, quantum computing, critical infrastructure, and biotech.
To achieve these objectives, Europe could form a "D7" coalition of democratic countries, including the UK, Canada, Japan, South Korea, New Zealand, Australia, and India, to foster economic openness, defense partnerships, and intellectual collaboration while also establishing new security arrangements against cyberkinetic attacks and economic coercion.