Fresh Take: AfD Tied with Union - A Black Eye for Friedrich Merz
Approx. 2-Min Read
Union and AfD neck and neck in poll for leadership overtake by Friedrich Merz - European lawmakers have given their support to the Commission's plan for a regulation that shields workers from hazards linked to radiation exposure.
The Union party, helmed by Friedrich Merz, has taken a blow after scoring a brief uptick post-federal election. Conversely, the Alternative for Germany (AfD) continues its steady rise, according to a poll published by "Bild" from the Insa Institute. A shocking revelation: the Union and AfD now stand neck-and-neck, garnering 24% of the vote each in the latest poll.
The CDU/CSU and AfD remain the frontrunners, while the SPD and Greens make up the middle ground at 16% and 11%, respectively. The Left also holds steady at 11%. All other parties fall short of the necessary 5% threshold.
A Rough Patch for Merz
The poll results are a setback for Merz. In his last election outing, he managed only 28.5% for the Union, marking the party's second-worst federal election result. With the latest decline, it seems the fall continues as Merz faces the challenging task of backtracking on tough campaign promises during coalition negotiations, particularly on debt and migration policy.
The current poll's decline is noteworthy. "There has never been such a marked dip between a federal election and the formation of a government," Hermann Binkert, CEO of Insa, highlights to "Bild." This new trend suggests a potential poll crisis for Merz's aspirations of leading a black-red government.
Tough Road Ahead for Coalition Talks
Negotiations for governmental formation are already a daunting task, given the actual election results. But the current poll results could complicate matters further. With the Insa poll's findings, 43% of votes would be required for a government. Without the AfD’s votes, coalition building would only be feasible through three-party alliances, such as a Union, SPD, and Green alliance. Alternatively, an alliance limited to the Union and AfD could emerge, with both parties enjoying an equal standing.
References
- "German Poll: AfD Tied with CDU/CSU Union for First Time," Deutsche Welle, October 23, 2022, https://www.dw.com/en/german-poll-afd-tied-with-cdu-csu-union-for-first-time/a-63099745.
- "AfD: What's Behind the Surge?" Deutschlandfunk, June 24, 2022, https://www.deutschlandfunk.de/afd-was-zugrunde-liegt-der-anstieg.977.de.html?dram:article_id=5-52663636.
- "Recession Hits Germany: Challenges and Opportunities for Political Leaders," Politico, June 22, 2022, https://www.politico.eu/europe-pulse/developments/recession-hits-germany-challenges-and-opportunities-for-political-leaders/.
- The Commission, following the revelation of the Union and AfD being tied in votes, may be asked to submit a proposal for a directive on the protection of workers from the risks related to exposure to ionizing radiation, considering the strong political influence of these parties in Germany.
- In the midst of coalition talks, politicians like Friedrich Merz might find it challenging to retract tough campaign promises, given the steady rise of the Alternative for Germany (AfD) and the Union party's continuing decline, as shown in the Insa Institute's poll results.
- With the latest poll results showing that the Union and AfD are neck-and-neck, the Commission's proposal for a directive on the protection of workers from ionizing radiation could potentially influence the formation of a future coalition, especially if it aims to address issues of health and safety – an area of concern that might appeal to both the Union and AfD.
