European Country Population Shifts: A Quantitative Analysis of Demographic Transformations
The European Union (EU) has seen a steady increase in its population in the last four years, with an estimated 450.4 million residents at the start of 2025. This growth is largely due to positive net migration, which has more than offset the negative natural change (more deaths than births) every year since 2012 [1][2][3][5].
In 2024, the EU population grew by approximately 1 million people, with 2.3 million people added through net migration, while the natural population change was negative by around 1.3 million due to more deaths than births [1][2][3]. This trend is projected to continue in the medium term, with migration remaining the critical factor in supporting demographic growth and mitigating population shrinkage in many member states [3].
The current population growth is not evenly distributed across the EU. Nineteen EU member states saw their population growing while eight saw a decline in 2024 [1]. Countries like Germany, France, and Italy, which together hold nearly half of the EU population, continue to grow or stabilize largely due to migration [1][2]. However, several Central and Eastern European countries, such as Bulgaria, Estonia, Hungary, Poland, Romania, and Slovakia, experienced population decline despite migration inflows [1][2].
The highest growth rates compared to the total population were recorded in Malta, Portugal, and Ireland [1]. On the other hand, eight EU countries, including Denmark, Latvia, and Lithuania, had a negative natural change that was not offset by immigration, leading to a population decline [1].
| Aspect | Current Status (2025) | Future Projection | |-----------------------|-----------------------------------------------|------------------------------------| | Population growth | Increased by ~1 million/year (last 4 years) | Depends mainly on migration flows | | Natural change | Negative since 2012 (more deaths than births) | Expected to remain negative due to ageing and low fertility | | Net migration | Strongly positive, +2.3 million in 2024 | Expected to remain key growth driver | | Regional variation | Population decline in some Eastern states; growth in major Western states | Continued uneven trends, with some countries shrinking |
The EU's population has grown from 354.5 million in 1960 to about 450.4 million in 2025, but the pace of growth has slowed sharply since the 1960s. Growth averaged nearly 3 million people per year in the 1960s, but only about 0.9 million per year between 2005 and 2024 [1][3]. Future projections indicate that natural population decline is likely to continue or even increase because of the ageing population and persistently low fertility rates [3].
This underscores that net migration is currently the dominant factor enabling population growth across the EU, effectively counterbalancing natural population decline, with this balance projected to continue in the medium term [1][2][3].
References:
- Eurostat (2025). Population and migration statistics.
- United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2025). World Population Prospects.
- European Commission (2025). Demographic Change in Europe.
- The EU's population growth between 2012 and 2025 is primarily attributed to positive net migration, which has significantly offset the negative natural change, as shown in the demographic statistics of 2024.
- Migration remains a critical aspect of EU politics, with future projections indicating it will continue to be the key growth driver, offsetting the negative natural change and mitigating population shrinkage in many member states.
