Europe needs to demonstrate its commitment to defense, according to Kersti Kaljulaid.
A Warning from the East: Europe Needs to Stand on its own Two Feet
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Europe should buckle up and prioritize its security as the United States reevaluates its role on the continent, advises former Estonian President Kersti Kaljulaid. After the Munich Security Conference, she highlighted that this year's discussions revealed striking uncertainties about Europe's capability to defend itself independent of Western alliances.
Kaljulaid, a regular at the conference, shared on social media that Munich always carries an ominous vibe. "I've attended this conference eight times, and not once has it felt like the world is safer," she posted. "The purpose of Munich, as Wolfgang Ischinger [the conference's former chairman] has stated, has always been to keep the Russians out. Might we argue that it has been successful, at least in terms of keeping a significant portion of Russian territory under control."
However, she acknowledged that for Eastern European nations, the conference's objectives have often been viewed through a different lens. The delayed West European response to the Soviet occupation of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania has left a lingering mistrust of solely relying on European solidarity. This skepticism resurfaced during the conference as discussions focused on NATO's future, fair burden-sharing, and the volatile nature of the new US administration.
The Republican's Surprise Sermon
One of the most eyebrow-raising moments came courtesy of JD Vance, a Republican US Vice President and close ally of President Donald Trump. His speech, which largely avoided the Russian threat and instead dove into criticisms of democracy and governance, left the crowd stunned.
"From my balcony seat, I could feel the tension in the air," Kaljulaid recounted in an interview with Estonian newspaper Postimees. "Polite speeches from the Americans have previously received warm applause. This, however, disregarded the critical question: how to keep the Russians out."
She mentioned that while Vance indicated his intentions earlier – stating he aimed to "teach Europeans about democracy" – few expected such a blunt and pushy approach. "This combative delivery may have fit nicely at Davos, a forum about economic shifts, but it felt misplaced at Munich," Kaljulaid added.
The West's Rohrschach Test
The reaction from European leaders, particularly from Germany and France, failed to inspire confidence. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who spoke the day after Vance, seemingly adjusted his speech to respond. Yet despite committing to unity, concrete commitments from Western European countries remain few and far between.
"When the COVID-19 crisis struck, France managed to funnel over €100 billion in response," Kaljulaid pointed out. "When it comes to supporting Ukraine, their contributions have amounted to just €5 billion over three years. The disparity is striking."
While Eastern European nations, such as Estonia and Poland, have been investing more than 3% of their GDP on defense, many wealthier Western European countries remain reluctant to match their efforts. "We're constantly told it's difficult to increase defense spending to 3 or 4% of GDP," she said. "We understand. Yet, the richer nations seem complacent."
This reluctance to invest in defense is one reason why Trump's unfiltered demands for Europe to step up are not universally frowned upon in Eastern Europe. "When someone with greater influence confronts Western Europe with its inadequacies, there's no cause for objection," Kaljulaid stated. "The real problem isn't that the Americans call out European weakness – it's that we, deep down, don't trust our allies to truly support us."
Baltic Defense in a Changing World
Despite the criticism, Kaljulaid remains optimistic regarding the Baltic region's security. "Estonia and Poland now invest higher percentages of GDP on defense than the US itself," she said. "This fact has not been ignored. We have clear plans within NATO, and our American allies recognize the strides we've made."
Meeting with NATO Supreme Allied Commander Europe, General Christopher Cavoli, Kaljulaid was comforted by the appreciation of Baltic and Nordic contributions to Ukraine's defense. However, she also admitted a deeper concern: "NATO has an impressive defense strategy on paper, but it feels like an empty vessel."
Asked whether she believes Trump's return to the White House would pose a threat to Estonia's security, Kaljulaid adopted a pragmatic approach. "During Trump's first term, we cultivated strong, high-level relationships with his administration. Vice President [Mike] Pence even visited Estonia," she recalled. "Through balance and smart diplomacy, we were able to engage with this administration. Traditional methods might not work for everyone, but we can find the right approach to connect on mutual interests."
Lessons for All
Kaljulaid's message to her fellow Europeans was straightforward: "If you want the Americans to back away because you find them too unconventional, too unpredictable, then learn to stand on your own. And if Europe wants the United States to take it seriously, it must demonstrate that it means business. Words alone won't earn you a seat at the table."
As Europe faces an increasingly volatile security landscape, Kaljulaid's warning rings clear: rhetoric and sluggish responses can no longer suffice. In an era where old diplomatic norms no longer apply, only tangible action will prove who's genuinely prepared for defense.
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- Former Estonian President Kersti Kaljulaid cautioned Europe to prioritize its security, as the United States might reevaluate its role on the continent.
- Kaljulaid mentioned a discernible uncertainty about Europe's capability to defend itself independently, post the Munich Security Conference.
- Eastern European nations, such as Estonia, have mistrust towards wholly relying on European solidarity due to the delayed West European response to the Soviet occupation.
- Republican US Vice-President JD Vance's speech at the conference was met with surprise and tension, with his focus on criticisms of democracy and governance instead of the Russian threat.
- Western European leaders, particularly Germany and France, failed to inspire confidence in their concrete commitments to support Ukraine amid the escalating tensions.
- Baltic countries, like Estonia, have invested more than 3% of their GDP on defense, while many Western European countries remain reluctant to match their efforts.
- Kaljulaid highlighted the need for Europe to demonstrate its seriousness towards defense, otherwise, the Americans might continue to call out European weakness, and the United States might reconsider its support.
