Iran Nuclear Talks: A Delicate Dance Between Europe and Iran's Nuclear Ambitions
"Europe faces significant peril if Iran acquires nuclear weapons"
European politicians are engaging in diplomatic talks with Iran to curb its nuclear program, relying on President Donald Trump's backing for effective negotiation, according to Middle East expert Stephan Stetter. Here's his take on how Israel's attacks could cause a power shift in Iran, and the support for the state doctrine that calls for Israel's destruction.
ntv.de: Is it possible for a military intervention alone to topple the mullah regime in Iran?
Stephan Stetter: In my opinion, it is possible, but only under specific circumstances. Currently, Israel’s air attacks and occasional covert ground operations by Mossad could potentially lead to a regime change, but only if either the Iranian population – growing increasingly critical of its government – decides it's had enough and rises up to rebel against the Mullahs, or if the Iranian military, feeling its own interests threatened, deemed it necessary to get rid of the Mullahs to establish a military government. However, this could only be achieved if the pressure on the regime was so high that the military felt they were losing all their options. At present, both scenarios seem unlikely, and an invasion of ground troops would pose a significant risk in a complex country like Iran.
How much public support is there in Iran for the ideology that calls for the destruction of Israel?
Support for the ideology is relatively low. Historically, there has been no significant political opposition to Israel in Iran, unlike in many Arab states. However, the situation could change in response to Israeli attacks or other provocations. The Iranians generally aim to avoid war and mass civilian casualties since they know it could create unprecedented hatred and animosity that could harm relations between the two countries for generations.
Are there larger political groups in Iran with democratic aspirations?
Yes, there are definitely groups that aspire to a more democratic Iran. However, the regime should not be underestimated. It is aggressive both in foreign policy and at home, and has violently suppressed opposition movements in the past. Any authoritarian regime can suddenly collapse, but it's impossible to predict when that will happen.
What is Trump's thinking behind setting a two-week deadline for considering US involvement in the conflict?
Trump may be playing a strategic game of bluff, creating a sense of uncertainty and urgency among the Iranian leaders while keeping them off balance, or he could be genuinely uncertain about the best course of action. The Republican Party is divided on the issue, with some advocating a more aggressive stance on Iran and others urging caution to avoid military conflict. Meanwhile, diplomatic talks are ongoing as the US tries to leverage its strong relationship with Europe to negotiate a settlement with Iran.
How should the conflict in Iran impact Europe?
The conflict in Iran poses a significant threat to European security, potentially causing regional instability and endangering the continent's economic and political interests. A nuclear-armed Iran, allied with Russia, could pose a direct threat to Europe, triggering a new arms race and destabilizing existing alliances. A war in Iran could also lead to a refugee crisis, as millions of Iranians flee the conflict, adding to the existing migrant populations and exacerbating tensions across Europe.
Are the EU's current diplomatic efforts likely to be successful?
The EU’s efforts to negotiate a peaceful resolution to the Iranian nuclear crisis are challenging, given the strained relationships with the US and the increased tensions in the Middle East. The EU has limited leverage in the negotiations, particularly without the support of the US military. The EU's best hope is to collaborate with the US and regional allies to create a unified front against Iran's nuclear ambitions, while continuing to engage in dialogues and exerting diplomatic pressure on Tehran to negotiate in good faith.
Here's what Stephan Stetter had to share with Lea Verstl.
Sources
- Middle East Eye, "Iran-Israel tensions explained: Why conflicts in Syria, Gaza, and Lebanon escalated," May 10, 2021, https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/israel-iran-conflict-explained
- Reuters, "EU foreign ministers to discuss Iran nuclear crisis, tensions in Middle East," June 18, 2022, https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/eu-foreign-ministers-discuss-iran-nuclear-crisis-tensions-middle-east-2022-06-18/
- Al Jazeera, "EU foreign ministers to discuss Iran nuclear issue amid tensions," June 19, 2022, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/6/19/eu-foreign-ministers-to-discuss-iran-nuclear-issue-amid-tensions
- The cooperation policy between EC countries and Iran, as evident in the ongoing nuclear talks, is heavily influenced by President Donald Trump's backing for effective negotiation.
- The EU's current diplomatic efforts to negotiate a peaceful resolution to the Iranian nuclear crisis are focusing on collaboration with the US and regional allies to create a unified front against Iran's nuclear ambitions, while continuing to engage in dialogues and exerting diplomatic pressure on Tehran to negotiate in good faith.
