War in Iran: Does the next migration crisis threaten? - Europe braces for potential Iran-driven migration crisis as tensions escalate
More than 26 million people have been displaced across the Middle East, with over 420,000 fleeing Lebanon alone due to recent Israeli airstrikes. Meanwhile, tensions are rising over the instability in Iran, raising fears of another major migration crisis like the one triggered by Syria's conflict years ago.
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has warned that the worsening situation in Iran could spark a repeat of the 2015 Syrian exodus, putting pressure on Europe's borders once again.
The European Union's recent asylum reform, known as the GEAS, was shaped in part by fears of a new 'Syria-style' crisis. However, its emergency measures for mass migration will not be fully in place until June 2026. The reform comes as EU asylum applications from Syrians have dropped sharply—from 151,000 in 2024 to just 42,000 in the following year, a decline linked to the collapse of Bashar al-Assad's regime.
Germany currently hosts the largest Iranian community in the EU, with 161,817 nationals registered as of late January. Chancellor Merz has urged Iran to maintain public order and essential services to avoid 'uncontrolled migratory movements'. His concerns focus particularly on the 2.5 million Afghans living in Iran, who could be forced to flee if instability worsens.
Turkey is already preparing for a possible surge in Iranian migrants, setting up buffer zones and tent cities along its border. International organisations report no immediate signs of a mass exodus from Iran, but the situation remains under close watch. Adding to the tension, U.S. President Donald Trump has threatened to escalate attacks on Iran, warning of 'complete destruction and certain death' in previously untargeted regions.
The EU's asylum system is still months away from being fully equipped to handle a large-scale crisis. With Turkey reinforcing its borders and Germany monitoring its Iranian population, the focus remains on preventing another wave of displacement. For now, no major movement has been detected—but the risk of further destabilisation in Iran keeps officials on alert.
