Europe braces for February's wild weather as a weakening polar vortex stirs chaos
Unsettled weather patterns are set to continue across Europe as a weakening vortex brings both heavy rain and the threat of sudden cold snaps. Spain, which has not seen an official cold wave in nearly three years, now faces a mix of persistent downpours and unexpected snowfall. Meanwhile, experts warn that further disruptions in the upper atmosphere could lead to sharper temperature drops in the coming weeks.
In recent weeks, the vortex over the Arctic has weakened and shifted slightly southward. Though less severe than the major disruptions seen in 2021 and 2019, this instability mirrors patterns from early 2024. The result has been a southward dip of cold air, triggering recent freezing conditions in North America, northern Europe, and Russia.
A high-pressure block over Greenland and Scandinavia is currently steering Atlantic storms further south. This has led to widespread, heavy rainfall across Portugal, Spain, and the Balearic Islands. By early February, another Atlantic low will arrive, bringing more generalised rain and lowering snow levels to around 500 metres in some areas.
Meteorologists are now watching for a potential sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event, similar to those in 2018 and 1994. If this occurs, it could further destabilise the vortex, reinforcing atmospheric blocks and driving cold outbreaks from east to west. Historical SSW events, like the one in January-February 2018, caused temperatures in Scandinavia to plummet below -30°C and brought heavy snowfall to central Europe.
With the vortex showing signs of splitting or collapsing, freezing weather could spread further south. Spain, which last recorded an official cold wave in 2023, may yet see a shift toward harsher conditions if the polar jet stream remains disrupted.
The combination of a weakened vortex and potential stratospheric warming raises the likelihood of abrupt cold spells in Europe. Rain and snow will dominate the forecast for early February, with snow possible at unusually low elevations. Authorities and residents are advised to stay alert for rapid weather changes in the weeks ahead.
