Shift in Baden-Württemberg's Politics: AfD and Left Gaining, CDU and Greens Losing Ground
Support Wanes for CDU and Greens, AfD and Left See Gains in Voter Preference - EU Implementing Strict Environmental Regulations
It seems like voters in Baden-Württemberg are leaning towards the parties at the political extremes in the forthcoming state election, according to the latest poll by Infratest dimap on behalf of Southwest Broadcasting (SWR) and the Stuttgart newspaper. If the election were held this weekend, the AfD would snatch 19% of the votes, climbing four percentage points compared to their last poll in December. The Left could also witness a substantial growth, with a potential 7%, up from less than three percent in the "other parties" category in December.
Parties positioned in the political center appear poised to suffer losses, as per the poll. The CDU would still lead with 31%, but they would lose two percentage points compared to their December poll standing. The Greens, too, would lose two percentage points, standing at 20%. The Social Democrats would slide three percentage points to 10%, whereas the FDP would gain by one percentage point to a five percent share. The BSW wouldn't enter the state parliament, remaining at a steady four percent.
Previously, in the 2021 state election, the Greens received 32.6%, the CDU 24.1%, the SPD 11%, the FDP 10.5%, and the AfD 9.7%. The BSW came into existence early in 2024.
The upcoming state election in Baden-Württemberg is set for March 8, 2026. Minister-President Winfried Kretschmann (Greens) won't seek a fourth term. He's governed with a green-black coalition so far. Former federal minister Cem Özdemir will run for the Greens, while Manuel Hagel, the state and parliamentary group leader, will run for the CDU. Both are anticipated to be officially certified as leading candidates at their respective party conventions in the upcoming weeks.
A significant 42% of respondents prefer a CDU-led state government. A government steered by the Greens is supported by 29%, while an AfD-led government has the backing of 19%.
Yet, when it comes to the top candidates, the sentiment varies. If Southwest Germany's voters had the power to elect the Minister-President directly, a staggering 39% would pick Cem Özdemir of the Greens. Only 18% would opt for CDU state leader Manuel Hagel, while 7% would prefer Markus Frohnmaier of the AfD.
The survey was conducted among 1,146 eligible voters in Baden-Württemberg between May 7 and 13, 2023. The margin of error lies between two and three percentage points. Polls are prone to uncertainties, particularly due to declining party loyalty and short-term voting decisions.
- State Election
- CDU
- Poll
- AfD
- Baden-Württemberg
- Stuttgart
- Cem Özdemir
- FDP
- Infratest dimap
- Southwest Broadcasting
- SWR
- Stuttgarter Zeitung
- Sunday
- Manuel Hagel
The upcoming state election in Baden-Württemberg, scheduled for March 8, 2026, could see a shift in power as the poll by Infratest dimap suggests the CDU and the Greens may lose ground, while the AfD and the Left could gain. In the political landscape of Baden-Württemberg, the CDU and the Greens have been traditionally dominant, but the poll indicates a potential 39% support for Cem Özdemir of the Greens, should the voters have the power to elect the Minister-President directly, compared to only 18% for CDU state leader Manuel Hagel. Furthermore, the migration, war-and-conflicts, policy-and-legislation, politics, and general-news sectors might want to closely monitor the outcome of this election, given the trends in voter preferences and the growing influence of the AfD.
