EU continues to anticipate a shift in sentiment from the White House

EU continues to anticipate a shift in sentiment from the White House

The recently announced EU-US trade agreement, effective from July 2025, has set off a wave of debate among European leaders. The agreement, which establishes a 15% tariff on most EU exports to the US, is expected to have a modest but negative impact on European GDP growth, with estimates ranging from a 0.2% to 0.8% reduction in GDP for the EU as a whole.

Gusty Graas, Member of Parliament for the Luxembourg Democratic Party, has urged the EU to take a more proactive and pragmatic stance, suggesting that Europe should move closer together and become more autonomous in its dealings with the US. His sentiments are shared by Charles Goerens, another Member of the European Parliament, who criticizes the EU for capitulating to US demands and expresses disappointment in the agreement.

The trade deal has been met with criticism from various European leaders, who argue that it represents a step backwards in terms of defending a European vision of the world. Remigijus Motuzas, Chairman of the Seimas Foreign Affairs Committee, believes that the EU must preserve its transatlantic link with the US, but is concerned about the US's hostility towards the European Union, as evidenced by Trump's repeated claims that the EU is out to screw the United States.

Michel Catala, Professor of contemporary European history, shares these concerns, believing that the shared interests of Americans and Europeans remain focused on the alliance, but worries about the US moving away from its values and the foundations of the common alliance. He argues that the trade agreement shows that the US continues to try and impose its will on European policy by threatening rather than collaborating with the EU.

Despite the criticism, not all European leaders share the same sentiments. Victor Negrescu, Vice-President of the European Parliament, is confident that the relationship with the US will remain strong. He argues that the EU should aim to strengthen its relationship with the US to ensure strategic collaboration can withstand current challenges.

The impact of the trade deal varies by country and sector, with Germany, Italy, and Ireland facing more substantial effects due to their export profiles, particularly in automotive, industrial machinery, chemicals, and parts of pharmaceuticals. Most private-market investments focused on services sectors are less directly affected since services constitute the bulk of EU economic activity and are not subject to US import tariffs.

The mixed economic outcomes and perceived concessions the EU made to the US have fueled criticism among some European leaders and likely contributed to skepticism or dissatisfaction among European citizens about the EU’s effectiveness in protecting European economic interests. The deal is seen as asymmetric and has raised concerns about European competitiveness, possibly reinforcing negative public sentiment toward Brussels as the perceived broker of a less advantageous deal.

In summary, the US-EU trade deal is forecasted to reduce European GDP modestly in the short term, unevenly impact member states and sectors, and contribute to mixed or negative public sentiment towards Brussels, reflecting concerns over the EU’s negotiating outcomes and the perceived asymmetry of concessions. As the EU and US continue to navigate their relationship, it remains to be seen how these concerns will be addressed and whether a more collaborative approach can be taken in future negotiations.

References: 1. ICG Market analysis (July 2025) 2. CEPS analysts 3. Eurointegration 4. The World Economic Forum

1. The European Parliament has been urged by Gusty Graas, a Member of Parliament from Luxembourg, to adopt a more proactive and pragmatic approach in its dealings with the United States, following the EU-US trade agreement.
2. Charles Goerens, another Member of the European Parliament, shares Gusty Graas' sentiments, criticizing the EU for allegedly capitulating to US demands in the agreement.
3. The EU-US trade agreement, which establishes a 15% tariff on most EU exports to the US, has been met with criticism from various European leaders, who argue that it represents a step backwards in terms of defending a European vision of the world.
4. Professor Michel Catala, an expert on contemporary European history, shares these concerns, arguing that the US continues to impose its will on European policy by threatening rather than collaborating with the EU, as evidenced by the trade agreement.
5. Despite the criticism, Victor Negrescu, Vice-President of the European Parliament, is confident that the relationship with the US will remain strong, arguing that the EU should aim to strengthen its relationship with the US to ensure mutual strategic collaboration.
6. The agreement has been seen as asymmetric by some European leaders, contributing to skepticism or dissatisfaction among European citizens about the EU’s effectiveness in protecting European economic interests, particularly those in Germany, Italy, and Ireland, who face more substantial effects due to their export profiles.

Read also: