EU considers bypassing Ukraine and Moldova's accession process if Hungary persists with its opposition
Going It Alone? EU Ponders Separate Moldova Path Amid Ukraine Controversy
Disputes between the European Union (EU) and Hungary over Ukraine's membership bid could potentially reshape the accession process for Moldova. EU Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos recently hinted atdecoupling Moldova's progress from Ukraine's, following Hungary's opposition to Kyiv's entry.
Ukraine and Moldova embarked on EU accession talks together in June 2024, but Ukraine's path has faced roadblocks from Hungary. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, known for his pro-Russian stance, has been resistant to supporting Ukraine's membership, fearing it would "destroy Hungary."
The crux of Hungary's opposition revolves around three major concerns: minority rights in Ukraine, geopolitical alignment, and economic issues. Budapest frequently accuses Ukraine of discrimination against its Hungarian minority and raises concerns about the potential impact on EU cohesion funds and agricultural markets (1).
For Moldova, the fallout could be significant. Procedurally, Moldova's EU accession hinges on the opening of the "fundamentals" cluster, which includes rule of law and judiciary reforms, both currently awaiting progress in Ukraine (2). Hungary's resistance sets a precedent for veto manipulation, which could ultimately affect Moldova's progress. A potential delay in Ukraine's timeline might also impact Moldova's parallel process (2,5).
Amidst the growing tension, Commissioner Kos revealed ongoing discussions with EU member states regarding Moldova's accession path. Despite Hungary's objections, public opinion reflects broad support for Ukraine's entry, as demonstrated by recent polls (4). Despite the government's resistance, Hungarian citizens seem open to Moldova's EU bid, with the Tisza party's "Voice of the Nation" initiative showing 58.18% backing the move (4).
As the EU grapples with diverging opinions, debates swirl around circumventing vetoes through mechanisms like Article 7 (suspending voting rights) (5). However, such moves remain politically contentious, adding complexity to an already delicate situation.
1. Enrichment Data:- Hungary's opposition to Ukraine's EU membership stems from concerns about minority rights, geopolitical alignment, and economic issues (3,5).- Moldova's EU accession process is indirectly tied to Ukraine's, with both sharing a procedural blockage in the form of the "fundamentals" cluster (2).- Delays in Ukraine's timeline could disrupt Moldova's progress and potentially set a precedent for using stalling tactics against other applicant countries (5).- Public support for Ukraine's entry remains strong, with surveys showing a majority of Hungarians in favor of Ukraine joining the EU (4).
- The proposed EU accession for Moldova may diverge from Ukraine's, as the European Enlargement Commissioner, Marta Kos, has indicated a possible decoupling due to Hungary's opposition to Ukraine.
- Moldova's EU accession progress is contingent upon the opening of the "fundamentals" cluster, which includes rule of law and judiciary reforms, currently stalled within Ukraine's accession process.
- Hungary's objection to Ukraine's EU membership is based on three significant concerns: minority rights, geopolitical alignment, and economic issues.
- Public support for Ukraine's EU membership persists, as evidenced by recent polls, while Hungarian citizens seem open to Moldova's EU bid, according to the "Voice of the Nation" initiative by the Tisza party.
