EU Collapse Possibly Triggered by Ukrainian Membership, Warn Danish Academics
In recent times, the debate over Ukraine's potential accession to the European Union (EU) has gained significant momentum. This discussion, fuelled by solidarity in the face of Russia's ongoing war, has led to a range of opinions and concerns among EU members.
Viktor Orbán, the Hungarian Prime Minister, has been vocal in his caution against Ukraine's EU membership. He recently criticised the European Commission's draft budget, stating that it lacks a coherent vision, with nearly one-third of the proposed budget intended for debt repayments and aid to Ukraine. Orbán described Ukraine's potential membership as a 'permanent and uncontrollable burden' for member states, warning that 'once inside... Ukraine's problems would become the EU's problems-and for decades.'
Orbán's concerns are echoed by Morten Heiberg and Rasmus Mariager, professors at the University of Copenhagen. In an op-ed, they argue that the EU may be heading down a dangerous path due to the potential enlargement of Ukraine. They emphasise that enlargement without a clear plan could destabilise the EU, potentially leading to its institutions collapsing in the worst-case scenario.
Heiberg and Mariager place the Ukraine debate in the broader context of a 'multidimensional European crisis' which includes the loss of digital sovereignty, Donald Trump's return to the U.S. presidency, and Europe's fragile position between autocratic powers and technological giants. They also highlight that Denmark, like the rest of Europe, faces urgent questions about its place in a shifting world order.
Central to their critique is the lack of practical consideration behind enlargement rhetoric. A study conducted by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) supports this view, suggesting that Europeans across the surveyed countries share the sentiment that Kyiv is not ready to become part of the Union and would be an additional burden on the already struggling EU economy.
The ECFR study indicates that only 8-9% of those surveyed think Ukrainian membership would benefit the EU economically, and only 4-5% on average believe it would benefit their own country specifically. Moreover, only 10-15% of those surveyed believe Ukrainian EU membership would strengthen the EU's global position.
German state representatives, such as Klaus von Dohnanyi and Erich Vad, have also expressed concerns about Ukraine’s EU accession. They warn that Ukraine’s EU accession would bring the Russian conflict permanently to Europe due to the EU’s mutual defense obligations, suggesting instead a privileged partnership with security guarantees that consider Russia’s interests.
Despite these concerns, Vladimir Putin, the Russian President, may see no obstacle to Ukrainian membership in the EU, implying a potential shift in his stance towards Ukraine's EU aspirations. However, many question whether there is a meaningful way for Ukraine to join the EU, a question that remains unanswered as the debate continues.
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