Essential Guide to US Elections: The Significance of Swing States Explained
The Tally's Up. Three Weeks Until the U.S. Election. Still Need the Perfect Vocab?
Here's your guide to understanding the most talked-about terms during the 2024 U.S. Election:
Who Will Win?
Besides the President and Vice President of the United States, as well as the entire House of Representatives and a third of the Senate, elections take place in states like Washington and Missouri for the positions of Governors—the heads of individual states.
Why is it Important?
The President of the United States is one of the world's most powerful figures. Their influence comes mainly from the country's strong economy and massive military. As a designated "Commander in Chief," they command the U.S. armed forces and are the only one authorized to order the activation of nuclear weapons. They always have a soldier with them carrying the "atomic football" — a seemingly harmless briefcase that hides the ability to activate atomic weapons.
Who Are the Candidates?
For the Republicans, Donald J. Trump, former President, real estate tycoon, and 78 years old, is running. For the Democrats, it was initially Joe Biden, who faced controversy due to his age of 81, low approval ratings, and concerns about his health. The first TV debate between Biden and Trump was so chaotic that Biden withdrew his candidacy. His Vice Presidential nominee, Kamala Harris, is now the Democratic candidate, turning 60, and formerly worked as a district attorney and Chief Prosecutor of the U.S. state of California. Just before becoming the Vice President, Harris served as a Senator for California.
The "Stolen Election" Lie
The less populous states tend to be the first to be counted after the election, leading Republican voters to speculate the election has been "stolen" when, on the following morning, democratic candidates appear to have won. However, it is a misinformation campaign, and, after the 2020 U.S. Election, multiple courts have confirmed that the Democrats won fairly. Yet, Trump persists in spreading this false narrative.
What is the Electoral College?
The Electoral College is a committee that determines the next President of the United States. It consists of delegates from each state. When American citizens vote, they are not electing the President directly but rather deciding which candidate their state with its electors will vote for in the Electoral College. It is there that the next U.S. President will officially be elected.
Each state can send as many electors as they have representatives in the House. For instance, Montana sends three, while California sends 54. These numbers are based on the states' population, but the ratios are not proportional; one elector from Montana represents approximately 350,000 voters, while one from California represents double that number. This disparity means that some votes hold more weight than others.
The voters in the U.S. determine which state in the Electoral College their state's electors will vote for. The official voting takes place on December 14, but the predicted winner is typically determined by the evening of the election itself, as the electors usually vote according to the wishes of the voters. To win the Presidency, a candidate must secure the votes of at least 270 of the 538 electors. In almost all states, the "winner takes all" principle applies: If a Presidential candidate wins the majority of votes in a state, they receive all of that state's electoral votes. Political scientists refer to this system as relative majority voting. Only in Maine and Nebraska are the electoral votes given out approximately according to the people's votes (Split Vote). In the American electoral system, it is possible for a candidate to win the most votes nationwide, yet still lose, as evidenced by Al Gore in 2000 and Hillary Clinton in 2016.
Blue, Red, and Purple States
In many states, the outcome of the election is already known, as one party dominates in a particular state and its votes. For example, Tennessee's votes have favored the Republican Presidential candidate since time immemorial, according to current polling.
States whose voters traditionally pick a particular party and its candidate are called red (Republican) and blue (Democratic) states. However, there are states where both parties have a chance at winning. These so-called "swing states" (or purple states) get extra attention during the campaigns, with both candidates investing millions in advertising. The majority of campaign appearances also take place in these states. The latest polls indicate that, in this year, the swing states deciding the election are Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Nevada, Georgia, Arizona, Michigan, and Wisconsin.
What is Gerrymandering?
Every ten years, the voting districts in each state are redrawn. Frequently, the ruling politicians engage in "gerrymandering"—a practice where they manipulate the district boundaries to their own advantage. This manipulation leads to fewer democratic votes in a given district, thus guaranteeing that their own party wins more elections, as demonstrated by Democratic wins securing half of the votes in North Carolina in 2020 while capturing only five of the state's thirteen seats in the House of Representatives.
A key objective of gerrymandering is to divide the opposing party's voters to maximize the percentage of votes won in as many districts as possible. This tactic works by combining as many opposing party members as possible into a single district, rendering their votes "wasted" as just one more vote can win the district (Packing). Another technique is to divide the opposing party's supporters across as many districts as possible, ensuring that the opposing party can win with minimal votes (Cracking).
However, the practice of gerrymandering has been met with controversy, with the courts ruling it unconstitutional in certain situations. Earlier this year, the North Carolina Supreme Court deemed its gerrymandered districts unconstitutional due to racial gerrymandering. Following this decision, several other states have implemented more objective methods for redrawing districts, such as in Arizona, where non-partisan commissions now handle the task of creating the new districts.
What happens in a Tie in the Electoral College?
For the unlikely scenario that both candidates gain 269 electors, a "tie" occurs in the Electoral College. In this case, the decision falls to the Congress in the form of a "contingent election." The House of Representatives selects the President, while the Senate chooses the Vice President. This situation has happened only once in U.S. history, after the inaugural election in 1789, and it appears extremely unlikely for the 2024 U.S. Election as per recent polls.
The State of Play for the 2024 U.S. Election
Who will take the reins of the United States in 2024—Kamala Harris or Donald Trump? On 5 November 2024, Americans will elect their new President—or Presidentess. Harris could make history as the first woman to hold the highest office. Over the next few weeks, our website will keep you updated with latest developments leading up to the election.
Authors
Kristin Mueller
Born in 2001 in Ulm, Kristin Mueller thrives on differences. She grew up in Baden-Württemberg, but does not speak the Swabian dialect, enjoys Guinness but dislikes beer, and became exasperated by the Cliffhanger finale in Crescent City—only to find herself unable to finish the next installment. Having started her journalistic career with the Walsroder Zeitung, she moved on to the City Portal "bremen.de" and the Social Media Agency Himmelrenner during her studies. For her Master's, the self-described Bremen enthusiast became a Hamburg investigative journalist. Her encoder is "mü".
- Kristin Mueller https://unsere Website/author/kirstin-mueller/Radfahren in Hamburg: Zwischen Verkehrswende und Unfallstatistik
- Kristin Mueller https://unsere Website/author/kirstin-mueller/Der Judische Friedhof in Altona: Grabsteine mit Geschichten
- Kristin Mueller https://unsere Website/author/kirstin-mueller/Ein Tag an der Eliteschule des Sports
- Kristin Mueller https://unsere Website/author/kirstin-mueller/Digitale Behörde dank KI? Das planen Hamburgs Parteien
Till Tognino
Till Tognino, a 2000 native of Magdeburg, initially envisioned himself as a goldsmith. Instead, he opted for a journalism degree and found his niche writing sharp text. He has worked for German television, Namibian radio stations, and a Spanish-language weekly in Germany. As a self-proclaimed "politics nerd," he has been able to recite the names of every German cabinet member since he was thirteen. If he isn't busy explaining the concept of U.S. overscale districting to others, he enjoys photographing birds and frogs while traveling in Costa Rica. His encoder is "tog".
- Till Tognino https://unsere Website/author/till-tognino/Radfahren in Hamburg: Zwischen Verkehrswende und Unfallstatistik
- Till Tognino https://unsere Website/author/till-tognino/Der Friedhof Ohlsdorf - Ruhestätte oder Park?
- Till Tognino https://unsere Website/author/till-tognino/Aurubis - 20.000 Hausehalte versorgt durch Abwasser
- Till Tognino https://unsere Website/author/till-tognino/Klage gegen "Correctiv" - Recherche vor Gericht
Enrichment Data:The U.S. Electoral College is the constitutional mechanism for electing the President and Vice President of the United States. It operates as an indirect system: voters in each state cast ballots for a slate of electors pledged to a presidential candidate rather than for the candidate directly. Each state is allocated a number of electors equal to its total number of U.S. Senators and Representatives, and the District of Columbia has three electors, making a total of 538 electors nationwide [2].
When voters participate in the general election on the Tuesday after the first Monday in November, they are actually voting for their state’s electors. In nearly all states, electors are selected on a winner-take-all basis—whichever candidate wins the popular vote in a state receives all of its electoral votes, except in two states that allocate some electors by congressional district [2]. After the election, these electors meet in their respective state capitals to cast their official votes for President and Vice President.
Significance of the Electoral College
- Producing Clear Winners: The Electoral College is designed to produce a clear winner in presidential elections. Even if no candidate receives a majority of the popular vote, the Electoral College almost always results in a decisive outcome, avoiding the need for recounts or runoff elections [1].
- Balancing State and National Interests: The system reflects the federal structure of the United States by giving both populous and less populous states a voice. Small states are assured at least three electoral votes, which can make their votes more significant in a close election [2].
- Preserving Stability and Certainty: The Electoral College helps maintain stability by providing a straightforward method for determining the outcome of a presidential race. As noted by legal scholar Richard Posner, it reduces pressure for runoff elections when no candidate secures a majority of the popular vote [1].
- Historical Controversy: While the system is intended to reflect the will of the country as a whole, there have been instances (five times in U.S. history) where the winner of the national popular vote did not win the Electoral College, leading to debates about its fairness and effectiveness [1][2].
In summary, the Electoral College plays a crucial role in U.S. presidential elections by balancing state and national interests, ensuring a clear winner, and maintaining the stability of the election process. However, its indirect nature and occasional discrepancies with the popular vote have led to ongoing debate about its relevance and fairness in the modern era [1][2].
- In the upcoming U.S. Election, the race to become the President is between Kamala Harris, the current Vice President, and Donald J. Trump, a former President and real estate tycoon, both running for the respective parties.
- The electoral votes determine the U.S. President, and each state can send as many electors as they have representatives in the House. For instance, California sends 54, while Montana sends only three, thus giving more weight to votes in large states compared to small ones.
