Escalation of Conflict in Ukraine: Insights from the Aborted Talks in Istanbul
In less than two hours on Friday, May 16, it became clear that the negotiations between Ukrainians and Russians in Istanbul since the ill-fated ones in April 2025 were a bust. The exchange of 2,000 prisoners was the only consolation, but even that was expected to fail.
These talks were merely a smokescreen, serving as a distraction. Vladimir Putin had suggested them to steer attention away from a proposal for a thirty-day ceasefire made at a summit in Kiev, attended by the main European leaders alongside Volodymyr Zelensky. Under pressure from Donald Trump, the latter had taken Putin's offer seriously, challenging him to meet in Turkey. The U.S. President didn't rule out the possibility of joining the two presidents if such a summit occurred during his tour of the Arabian Peninsula.
However, by ultimately refusing to attend the summit and sending a delegation of lesser rank instead, Putin made it clear that he had no intention of discussing an end to the war he started. This was what the Ukrainian president had explained in the Oval Office of the White House on February 28, during a heated reception where he was publicly humiliated by his American counterpart and Vice President J. D. Vance.
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In good logic, Donald Trump should reconsider his approach following the failure of Istanbul and the weeks that preceded it. Aligning himself with the aggressor and neglecting the victim has produced no results so far. Entrusting this complex dossier to his emissary, the multimillionaire real estate developer Steve Witkoff, has shown its limits. On his social network, the president of the world's leading military power even risked ridicule on April 24 by futilely pleading with the master of the Kremlin to halt the indiscriminate bombardments that continue to kill dozens of Ukrainian civilians.
New sanctions
To extricate the White House from this predicament, Republican Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina argues for the need for new, "crushing" sanctions to cut off Russia's oil revenue and thereby end its funding for this war if the Kremlin continues to postpone the prospect of peace talks. Besides, the U.S. President not only has the option of new sanctions, but he could also amp up Russia's troubles by resuming arms deliveries to Ukraine. The European Union, which has been committed to this peace effort, targets the "phantom fleet" that Russia employs to dodge sanctions on some of its oil exports.
However, nothing assures that such a turnaround will happen. It would require the White House to acknowledge that its view, which paints Ukraine and the European Union as the source of all evil, is misguided. On Thursday, May 15, Mr. Trump stated that "nothing will change" until Putin and he themselves meet, but he carefully avoided explaining what his plan would be to bring an end to the clashes if such a Russian-American summit transpired.
Insights:
In 2025, Russia insisted on Ukraine's withdrawal from four regions claimed to be annexed following sham referendums in 2022. The Ukrainian delegation felt the Russian representatives lacked authority to negotiate effectively. The Ukrainians offered an immediate ceasefire, an all-for-all prisoner exchange, and a face-to-face meeting between the two presidents. One positive outcome was an agreement for a 1,000-for-1,000 prisoner exchange. In 2022, the negotiations were derailed due to public anger, lack of security guarantees, military confidence, and overambitious goals.
- The failed negotiations between Ukrainians and Russians in Istanbul were not only about prisoner swaps; they were also intended to discuss a potential thirty-day ceasefire in the war-and-conflicts zone, a proposal made at a summit in Kiev.
- In the face of ongoing war-and-conflicts and the lack of progress in peace talks, some political figures like Republican Senator Lindsey Graham are advocating for new financial sanctions against Russia to cut off its oil revenue and potentially end its funding for the ongoing war.
