Escalation in Donbass presents potential challenges
Prof. Dr. Carlo Masala, a military strategy expert from the University of the German Armed Forces in Munich, has expressed concerns about the potential consequences of Russia granting fortifications in the Donbass region to Ukraine during peace talks.
The Donbass region, located in the east of Ukraine, is a significant area in terms of military strategy. If controlled by Ukraine, it would provide a strong starting position for any future attacks on the rest of Ukraine. The region is often referred to as the "Donbass fortress," due to its fortified state.
The peace talks between Ukraine and Russia involve the potential cession of the Donbass region. If Russia grants fortifications in the Donbass region to Ukraine during peace talks, it could potentially provide a strategic advantage in future conflicts. However, if Russia cedes the Donbass region, it could potentially provide a strategic advantage to Ukraine, but with complex and significant consequences.
According to Masala, a Russian cession of Donbass (contrary to Russian current demands for control) would be a major shift that could bring reduced immediate conflict in that region, but potentially at the cost of Ukraine's territorial integrity, security alignment, and political stability.
Such a concession might ease fighting in the heavily contested region, but it could also lead to the loss of strategically vital territory with economic and symbolic significance for Ukraine. It could potentially result in political destabilization within Ukraine due to the perception of conceding land under duress.
Moreover, the move could complicate Ukraine’s sovereignty and future security, as Russia's broader objectives include political control over all Ukraine, not just territorial gains. The possibility also exists that conceding Donbass might be linked by Russia to demands for Ukraine's neutrality and other conditions that could limit Ukraine's future alliances and defense capabilities.
Ukrainian and European allies may require approval of any deal, suggesting international political consequences and scrutiny. In the broader geopolitical context, such a move would likely remain controversial and complicated.
This analysis aligns with reports that Russia is unwilling to accept any agreement short of Ukraine's full capitulation and demands control or influence over all of Ukraine, indicating that if Russia were to cede Donbass, it would potentially mark a fundamental change in the conflict dynamics.
[1] BBC News. (2022, February 23). Ukraine crisis: What is the Donbass region? [online] Available at: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26235012
[2] The Guardian. (2022, February 22). Russia demands Ukraine cede Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts as part of ceasefire negotiations. [online] Available at: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/22/russia-demands-ukraine-cede-donetsk-and-luhansk-oblasts-as-part-of-ceasefire-negotiations
- Given the strategic importance of the Donbass region and the potential consequences of its cession, this issue is not limited to war-and-conflicts but also involves general-news aspects such as politics and international political alliances.
- Other countries and international bodies may play a significant role in the peace talks between Ukraine and Russia, as Ukrainian and European allies may require approval of any deal, potentially leading to other war-and-conflicts or changes in politics.
