Escalation from a False Ceasefire to a Possible World War: The Potential Conclusion of Putin's Conflict
The international analytical center GLOBSEC has released a report titled "Seven Security Scenarios on Russian War in Ukraine for 2025 - 2026," outlining seven possible scenarios for the future of relations between Russia and Ukraine amid the ongoing conflict.
The report, which was presented to US President Donald Trump during a conference with European partners at the White House on Monday (August 18), highlights the ongoing war and its prolongation as the most likely scenario.
The seven scenarios, listed from "highly unlikely" to "most likely," are as follows:
- Hybrid Type World War III – This scenario envisions a war in Ukraine that becomes intertwined with multiple acute regional conflicts worldwide, such as in the Middle East, Asia-Pacific, the Balkans, and the Caucasus.
- War of Attrition at Current Intensity – In this scenario, Russia continues the war with a prolonged conflict maintaining the current level of intensity, while Europe and the US provide optimal military and financial support to Ukraine.
The report does not provide specific details about the nature or purpose of recent meetings between Trump and Putin, or between Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. However, there is talk of a potential meeting between the two leaders.
The scenarios, while not yet public knowledge, offer a glimpse into the potential evolutions of the conflict and its wider implications. They test the resilience of Ukraine and the resolve of the democratic world, as each scenario poses different challenges for both Ukraine and the international community.
The analysts at GLOBSEC emphasize that none of the scenarios offers easy answers, and they urge caution and vigilance in the face of the ongoing conflict.
For those interested in further contextual background about the ongoing conflict, the strategic stakes, and the international implications, related expert analyses are available. But the seven scenarios specifically were primarily summarized as above by GLOBSEC’s report.
[1] Source: GLOBSEC's report "Seven Security Scenarios on Russian War in Ukraine for 2025 - 2026"
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