Title: The Real Impact of the EU-Turkey Agreement on Migration: Insights Revealed
Escalating the predicament, only more lives are losing out.
June 25, 2025, 14:47 CEST
Managing the wave of migrants that hit Europe in 2015 became a primary concern for European Union (EU) policymakers. The EU-Turkey deal of 2016 sought to stem the flow through transit countries like Turkey, especially Europe-bound migrants crossing into Greece. But did it work, or did it create new problems? Let's take a deep dive into a recently published study that sheds light on this topic.
What if the EU-Turkey deal hadn't happened?
Researchers from Italy's IMT School for Advanced Studies Lucca rigorously analyzed the possible outcomes if the EU-Turkey agreement hadn't come into place. The study reveals that, without the deal, the number of migrants attempting to cross the borders from Turkey to Greece (and other routes) could have been staggering, comparable to or even surpassing the million unauthorized sea arrivals to Greece and Italy in 2015 alone.
Death Toll: A Shocking Revelation
The findings indicate that the EU-Turkey agreement, instead of reducing irregular migration, contributed to an increase via alternative routes and ultimately led to additional deaths. In the months following the deal, around 2,000 migrants who would have otherwise taken the Eastern Mediterranean route were diverted to the Central Mediterranean route. This shift towards a more dangerous sea passage coincided with a significant rise in deaths along this route.
The Central Mediterranean Route: A Deadlier Toll
Irene Tafani, a doctoral student at IMT School and the study's lead author, presented a grim picture. "Political decision-makers should resist the temptation to celebrate the decrease in arrivals in Greece without acknowledging that these people have not given up on migration. They are simply looking for alternative routes and exposing themselves to greater risk in Libyan waters."
Migration Policies: A European Consensus or Independent Deals?
Germany's interior ministers emphatically agree on the importance of a united European approach to migration policy, emphasizing the need for cooperation at the EU level to reduce illegal migration. In this light, Tafani warns against the pitfalls of entering into bilateral agreements without broader coordination, arguing that such deals could only result in shuffling migration flows and forcing vulnerable populations onto even more perilous routes.
Frontex: Fewer Border Crossings But at What Cost?
In a rather ironic twist, the EU border agency Frontex reports a significant drop in irregular border crossings registered in the EU this year compared to the same period in the previous year. This reduction makes it challenging for policymakers to justify stricter border controls. However, as the study demonstrates, this decrease in registered crossings might come at the expense of increased danger for those attempting migration via alternative routes.
[1] Irene Tafani, M. Riccaboni. (2025). The impact of the EU-Turkey agreement on the number of lives lost at sea. HSScomms.
[2] Sabine Schlesinger. (2025, June 13). Regional news from the Studio Dresden. SACHSEN - Das Sachsenradio. Retrieved from https://www.sachsenradio.de.
[3] European Council (2016). EU-Turkey Statement. Brussels, 18 March. Retrieved from https://www.consilium.europa.eu.
[4] European Asylum Support Office. (2025). Arrivals in Europe by sea. Retrieved from https://www.easo.europa.eu.
[5] United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees. (2025). Global Refugee Response. Retrieved from https://www.unhcr.org.
- Migration policies within Europe seem to be dominated by a united approach, with Germany's interior ministers stressing the importance of this cooperation to reduce illegal migration.
- The findings of a study from Italy's IMT School for Advanced Studies Lucca reveal that the EU-Turkey agreement indirectly contributed to an increase in deaths along the Central Mediterranean route.
- In the broader context of politics and policy-and-legislation, the EU-Turkey agreement may have unintended consequences such as forced migration via less safe routes, causing accidents at sea and fires related to improper conditions in transit countries.
- The news of fewer border crossings registered in the EU this year, as reported by the EU border agency Frontex, may be a positive indication for policymakers, but it could also mask the real impact on migrants who are seemingly pursuing their journey through alternative, potentially dangerous routes where the odds of car-accidents, crime-and-justice incidents, or even fatalities are higher.
