Escalating Tensions: Potential War with Israel looms ominously over Iran due to impending retaliatory attack
The Middle East is currently grappling with heightened military tensions between Israel and Iran, marked by direct state-on-state conflict and ongoing proxy warfare. The most recent escalation came in June 2025, when Israel launched surprise attacks on key Iranian military and nuclear facilities, sparking what became known as the "Twelve-Day War."
During this conflict, Israel conducted hundreds of airstrikes, assassinated prominent Iranian military leaders and nuclear scientists, and inflicted significant damage on Iran’s air defenses and nuclear infrastructure. Iran retaliated with over 550 ballistic missiles and more than 1,000 drones targeting Israeli cities and military sites, while the Iran-aligned Houthi movement in Yemen also launched missiles at Israel.
The United States intervened militarily on Israel's behalf, bombing Iranian nuclear sites, which prompted Iran to strike a US base in Qatar. A ceasefire was brokered on June 24, 2025, after appeals from Gulf Arab states and US diplomatic intervention—but the situation remains volatile, and the risk of renewed hostilities is significant.
The renewed Gaza war has been a major factor in these escalations, with the conflict spilling over into direct confrontation between Israel and Iran. As Israeli military operations weakened Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon, and as the Assad regime in Syria faced internal challenges, Iran's reliance on the Houthis in Yemen as a regional proxy has increased.
Iran traditionally relies on a network of regional allies—Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, Shi’a militias in Iraq, and the Houthis in Yemen—to pressure Israel on multiple fronts, thereby limiting Israel’s ability to focus directly on Iranian nuclear or military capabilities. This strategy aims to compel Israel to defend against simultaneous threats, raising the costs of any confrontation.
There is significant concern that further Israeli actions in Gaza or against Iranian interests could provoke additional Iranian responses, either directly or through its proxies. The current ceasefire is fragile, and the risk of renewed large-scale conflict remains substantial.
In the midst of this turmoil, the Iranian rial has risen from 610,000 to 660,000 against the dollar on the black market since the 1 April Israeli attack on Damascus. News about the tensions between Israel and Iran over the Gaza war is barely making people's screens, while many Iranians hold an anti-Israeli sentiment, with public opinion being particularly appalled at the destruction of Gaza and the killing of over 33,000 Palestinians.
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the Supreme Leader of Iran, has stressed that an attack on embassies and consulates is considered an attack on Iran itself. Most opponents of the Iranian establishment believe that any conflict would be disastrous for the country.
As the region waits with bated breath, it is clear that the situation remains tense, and the potential for renewed conflict looms large.
- The Middle East, currently in turmoil, is experiencing increased military tensions between Israel and Iran, involving direct state-on-state conflict and proxy wars.
- The recent escalation, known as the "Twelve-Day War," occurred in June 2025, with Israel launching attacks on Iranian military and nuclear facilities.
- Iran retaliated by targeting Israeli cities and military sites with over 550 ballistic missiles and more than 1,000 drones, while also having allies like the Houthi movement in Yemen launch missiles at Israel.
- The United States intervened militarily on Israel's behalf, targeting Iranian nuclear sites, which led to Iran striking a US base in Qatar, and a ceasefire was brokered on June 24, 2025.
- The renewed Gaza war has contributed to these escalations, with the conflict spilling over into direct confrontation between Israel and Iran, as Iran increases its reliance on regional proxies like Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon.
- The Iranian rial has risen significantly against the dollar on the black market, with many Iranians holding an anti-Israeli sentiment, particularly appalled at the destruction of Gaza and the killing of over 33,000 Palestinians.
- The potential for renewed large-scale conflict remains substantial, with significant concern that further Israeli actions could provoke additional Iranian responses, either directly or through its proxies.
