Warfare looms as the foremost concern for the Caucasus, warns recent World Economic Forum survey
Escalating tensions in the Caucasus region pose significant threats to peace, according to a recently published report.
Residents of the tumultuous Caucasus region rank the resurgence of war as their top worry, according to a global poll conduced by the World Economic Forum. This survey polled academics, government officials, and entrepreneurs worldwide to evaluate the perceived threats to stability in various regions.
With a history of recurring conflicts, such as the Armenian-Azerbaijani struggle over Nagorno-Karabakh, the geopolitical consequences of the 2008 Georgian-Russian war, and the aftermath of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, it's no surprise that locals participating in the survey are preoccupied by the specter of future conflicts. Both Armenia and Georgia listed "involuntary migration" alongside "interstate conflict" among their top five concerns. Georgians also put "the use of chemical, biological, or nuclear weapons" in their top five worries.
Armenians, however, are primarily worried about their country's economic future. The survey found that "labor shortage," "geoeconomic confrontation," and "economic downturn" are the top five fears for Armenians. Meanwhile, Georgians list "cybercrime" and "energy supply shortage" as their other top five concerns. Unfortunately, Azerbaijan did not participate in the survey.
The survey reveals that "illicit economic activity" is not a major concern for Caucasus participants, despite the region's notoriety for grand corruption and a lack of transparency. Georgia experienced one of the most significant declines among Eurasian states in Transparency International's Corruption Perceptions Index for 2023.
Surprisingly, the survey participants in the Caucasus do not seem particularly alarmed by the viral spread of misinformation.
In summary, the WEF survey foresees a precarious future, expecting that geopolitical tensions combined with the re-emergence of active hostilities in multiple regions will contribute to an unstable global order. Furthermore, the report warns that technological advancements, such as in generative AI, will empower non-state and state actors to develop nefarious tools of disruption and conflict in the years to come.
The survey conducted by the World Economic Forum suggests that residents of the Caucasus region have a general concern about the resurgence of war, given the region's history of war-and-conflicts, particularly the Armenian-Azerbaijani struggle over Nagorno-Karabakh, the geopolitical consequences of the 2008 Georgian-Russian war, and the aftermath of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Moreover, the participants' opinion about the instability in the region is shaped by their worries about interstate conflicts and involuntary migration.
