Worst-case Scenarios if Israeli-Iranian Conflict Intensifies
Escalating Tensions Between Israel and Iran: Exploring Potential Catastrophic Outcomes
The escalation of hostilities between Israel and Iran could have catastrophic repercussions in the Middle East, worldwide economies, and international relations. Here's a glimpse into some possible outcomes:
US Involvement in the Fray
Although the US denies involvement, Iran suspects American military has winked at or even backed Israel's attacks. Tehran may launch strikes on US targets in the Middle East, like special forces camps in Iraq, Persian Gulf military bases, and diplomatic missions. Although Hamas and Hezbollah may suffer significant losses, Iran's allies in Iraq remain a threat.
The US has expressed concern over such attacks, warning Tehran of severe retaliation. If an American citizen were to be killed, say, in Tel Aviv or elsewhere, US President Donald Trump might feel compelled to meddle, following a pattern of Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu trying to draw the US into conflict with Iran. Trump's backers in the Israeli government think now is the right time to topple the Iranian regime.
In this scenario, the US becoming an active combatant would signify a steep increase in hostilities, causing long-term and potentially devastating consequences.
Engaging Persian Gulf Countries
Unable to inflict meaningful damage on Israel's well-protected military and other facilities, Iran could aim its rockets at more vulnerable targets in the Persian Gulf, specifically nations believed to have been aiding Israel for years. The energy-rich region's infrastructure could bear the brunt of Iran's wrath.
Since 2019, Iran has been accused of hitting Saudi Arabia's oil facilities, and, in 2022, it supported attacks on targets in the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Despite slight improvements in Iran's relations with some regional countries, many of these nations Host American military bases and, unofficially, participate in Israel's defense against Iran.
An attack on any Persian Gulf country by Iran might necessitate US air support.
Incapacitating Israel's Offensive
What if Israel's attacks fail to degrade Iran's nuclear capability? Iran stores up to ten potential nuclear warheads' worth of uranium enriched to 60%, buried deep in secret tunnels, protected by well-trained nuclear physicists. Israel's air strikes have targeted these facilities, killing several nuclear experts, but their accumulated knowledge and expertise could endure.
What if Israel's attacks convince Iran's leadership that their only option is to swiftly acquire nuclear weapons? What if these new military leaders prove less restrained than their predecessors? Israel might then resort to further escalation, igniting a violent cycle of strikes and retaliation.
Economic Impact
Oil prices are already soaring, but what if Iran decides to block the Strait of Hormuz, further restricting oil supplies? If Yemen's Houthis, Iran's last unpredictable allies on the Arabian Peninsula, intensify attacks on ships in the Red Sea, global economies would face an inflation crisis.
Regime Change in Iran
Israel may aim to achieve its long-term goal of toppling Iran's Islamic Revolution regime. The aftermath of such a regime change remains uncertain, as it might create a political vacuum with unforeseen consequences. Recall the destabilizing effects of the removal of strong governments in Iraq and Libya.
As the war unfolds, we must consider how Iran responds and if the US can rein in Israel. These answers will shape the future course of events.
- Return of tourists: Ministry of Tourism appeals to Kazakhstanis due to Middle East situation
- Israel plans to expand military operation against Iran's nuclear program
Regional Stability and Military Consequences
- Potential destabilization of countries like Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon, where pro-Iranian militias are present.
- Israel facing challenges in managing simultaneous operations in Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria.
- Increased IRGC influence, using the crisis to suppress dissent and rally nationalist support.
Global Economic Implications
- Oil price spikes and impacts on global energy markets and economies.
- Israel's high-tech and tourism sectors could suffer due to security concerns, while Iran faces economic repercussions from tightened sanctions and currency fluctuations.
International Involvement and Diplomacy
- US strategic dilemma, potentially leading to increased tensions in its pivot towards the Indo-Pacific.
- China's potential absence during the crisis, despite its economic ties to Iran, or efforts as a mediator.
- Russia exploiting the crisis to reassert its influence or capitalize on US distractions.
Global Politics Impact
-Conflict-induced geopolitical shifts, affecting regional dynamics and altering the balance of power.-Limited diplomatic opportunities critical to stopping further escalation.
- The war-and-conflicts in the Middle East might discourage tourists, leading the Ministry of Tourism to appeal to Kazakhstanis due to the ongoing situation.
- In continuation of its efforts against Iran's nuclear program, Israel plans to expand its military operation, a move that could escalate regional tensions and have global political and economic implications.
