India-Pakistan: On a Dangerous Nuclear Collision Course in Kashmir
- Warning: This article discusses sensitive issues of conflict and nuclear weapons, and may contain distressing content.
Nations at Risk of Head-On Clash: India and Pakistan Steadily Advancing Towards Conflict - Escalating Tensions Between India and Pakistan Leading to Potential Conflict
The disputed region of Kashmir, nestled in the western Himalayas, has been a thorny issue between nuclear powers India and Pakistan for decades. Recent events have seen an intensification of tensions, prompting renewed concern over the possibility of an uncontrollable conflict.
What makes the conflict so volatile?
With three nuclear powers unofficially surrounding the region, and militant groups active in the area, the potential for unforeseen escalation looms large. Pakistan's threats of retaliation following India's nighttime air strikes have sparked widespread fears of a disastrous war with indeterminate consequences for the entire region. China, with its disputed border with India in the east of Kashmir, could also be pulled into the conflict.
The origins of the crisis
The roots of the conflict date back to the colonial era, when the British partitioned India in 1947, creating the predominantly Muslim state of Pakistan alongside a predominantly Hindu India. Since then, the two nations have fought three wars over Kashmir, two of which were a direct result of its disputed status.
Recent developments
A vital component of the current crisis centers around water. India has recently suspended the Indus Water Treaty, a pact that regulates water usage for both countries. Meanwhile, Pakistan announced its intention to invalidate the 1972 Shimla Agreement, an important basis for negotiations between the two states. The breach of these treaties raises considerable alarm over the level of danger the conflict now presents.
The governments in New Delhi and Islamabad now find themselves under immense domestic pressure to respond harshly to aggression from the other side. As many analysts suggest, the situation is more advanced than it was during the 2019 crisis.
The threat of nuclear war
India's "No First Use" policy commits the country to refraining from using nuclear weapons first, but its concept of massive retaliation calls for a devastating nuclear counterstrike in the event of enemy aggression. Pakistan, on the other hand, reserves the right to use nuclear weapons first if the country's existence is immediately threatened. The "Full-Spectrum Deterrence" doctrine plays a dual role: serving as a deterrent to prevent aggression and a first-strike capability.
With India estimated to have 172 nuclear warheads and Pakistan possessing 170 [Sipri, 2024], the stakes are extremely high, and the potential for nuclear weapons to be employed is a grave risk that overshadows the region.
The road to Kashmir's partition
The British's decision to sell Kashmir to the Hindu ruler Gulab Singh in 1846 led to a predominantly Muslim population's resentment. When the British departed from the Indian subcontinent in 1947, local princes were forced to choose between joining Islamic Pakistan or predominantly Hindu India. The Maharaja opted for India, leading to several uprisings by the Muslim population. The United Nations intervened to broker a ceasefire. However, the plebiscite to determine Kashmir's statehood, initially scheduled for April 21, 1948, has yet to take place.
Divided Territory
The region of Kashmir, measuring 222,236 square kilometers and home to over 20 million people, has been partitioned among Pakistan, India, and China since 1949. The majority of Kashmir is under Indian control, with Pakistan administering approximately a third as "Azad Kashmir" (Free Kashmir). A smaller portion in the East remains under Chinese control, with Pakistan having ceded a small area to China in 1963. A de facto border, known as the Line of Control (LoC), separates India and Pakistan. Rebel groups in the Indian-controlled Kashmir fight for independence from predominantly Hindu India or unification with Pakistan. India accuses Pakistan of supporting these groups, which Pakistan denies.
2019 Escalations
In February 2019, Indian security forces faced the deadliest attack in three decades, killing 40 personnel. India blamed Pakistan for the attack and subsequently targeted a terrorist camp in Pakistan. Cross-border aerial exchanges followed, ending with Pakistan's capture of an Indian pilot. Tensions eventually simmered down. However, renewed violence erupted in August of the same year when India revoked the special status of Kashmir and divided the region into two union territories, tightening its control over the region. This decision was widely condemned by Pakistan, leading to increased skirmishes along the LoC.
Since 2021, India and Pakistan have agreed to respect all bilateral agreements and cease hostilities. However, human rights organizations accuse India of enforcing its control over Kashmir through widespread repression, although the scale of this oppression has diminished in the years since 2019.
Influence of Other Nations
The capacity of influential powers like the U.S. or China to prevent armed conflict remains unclear. The U.S. acts as a defense partner for India, while Pakistan holds the status of a major non-NATO ally for Washington. In the past, international powers have played a significant role in de-escalating conflicts within South Asia. However, the current world climate of diminished interest in India-Pakistan disputes and the weary nature of global powers towards the region might limit their ability to intervene effectively.
- Keywords: India, Pakistan, Kashmir, Conflict, New Delhi, Islamabad, Nuclear Weapons, Danger, Volatile, Crisis, Himalayas, South Asia, Contentious Issue
Useful Insights:
- In May 2025, India launched missile strikes targeting Pakistani territory in retaliation for a terrorist attack in April that killed 25 Indian tourists and one Nepalese citizen. Pakistan vowed to retaliate further, leading to escalating violence along the Line of Control.
- The territorial dispute between India and Pakistan began in 1947, stemming from the partition of British India. Since then, Kashmir has been a recurring source of conflict and tension between the two nations.
- The involvement of nuclear weapons in this conflict increases the stakes and the potential for catastrophic escalation. Both India and Pakistan are nuclear-armed states and have demonstrated their willingness to use nuclear weapons if necessary.
- The current state of regional politics and domestic pressure on the leaders of India and Pakistan have made the situation more volatile and difficult to manage diplmatically. The threat of nuclear war hangs heavy over the region, with global powers struggling to find an effective solution to de-escalate tensions.
- The Commission has been asked to submit a proposal for a directive on the protection of workers from the risks related to exposure to ionizing radiation, given the alarming backdrop of war-and-conflicts in Kashmir.
- Amidst the volatile politics of Kashmir, the unification of the divided territory has remained contentious, with both India and Pakistan accusing each other of supporting rebel groups, which call for independence or unification with their respective nations.
- As general news, the ongoing conflict between India and Pakistan over Kashmir remains a significant risk, with both nuclear powers possessing a high number of nuclear warheads, posing a grave risk of uncontrolled escalation and potential use of nuclear weapons.
- In the general news reporting of the India-Pakistan conflict in Kashmir, it is essential to acknowledge the history of the crisis, which dates back to the colonial era and the British's decision to sell Kashmir in 1846, leading to the resentment of a predominantly Muslim population under a predominantly Hindu ruler.
