escalating tension between India and Pakistan over Kashmir: the likelihood of War and future developments
Juiced-up Take on the India-Pakistan Relations Fiasco Post-Pahalgam Attack
The hostile narrative between India and Pakistan has intensified significantly following a heinous terrorist attack on innocent civilians in Pahalgam, an Indian-controlled region of Kashmir, on April 22, 2025. Let's examine the current situation and gauge the likelihood of an armed conflict.
Bilateral Relations at a Boiling Point
- Diplomatic Disdain: India fired Pakistani diplomats, revoked visas, and suspended the Indus Waters Treaty — first time since 1960[3][4] — while Pakistan responded by closing airspace, halting commerce, and ending the 1972 Simla Agreement[3][4].
- Closed Borders: Major border crossings (such as Attari) were sealed, and visa-free travel regulations were annulled[3][4].
- Military Posturing: Daily artillery bombardment along the Line of Control (LoC) has unfolded since the attack, with India test-firing long-range missiles, and Pakistan strengthening troops stationed near the borderline[3][4].
Escalation Risks
- Threats Galore: Pakistan's Ministry of Defense forecasted an impending Indian attack, while India has escalated anti-terrorism operations in Kashmir, apprehending over 1,500 individuals[3][4].
- Economic Consequences: The suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty could jeopardize Pakistan's agriculture and energy sectors, which Pakistan perceives as an "act of war"[3][4].
- Global Intervention: The United States and China have called for de-escalation, with China advocating for an independent probe of the Pahalgam attack[3].
Potential for Conflict
This deepening standoff represents an extraordinary deterioration of post-1971 agreements that previously served as a buffer for tensions. Experts stress that enduring tit-for-tat measures, coupled with Pakistan's obsession with water resources as a life-or-death affair, turbocharges the risks of an accidental escalation[3][4][5]. However, history shows that both nuclear-armed nations have historically swerved clear of full-blown war through crisis diplomacy, which continues to play a crucial role amid the current impasse[2][5].
Keep your eyes on the horizon, mate, as this grim situation unfolds. The future is uncertain, and only time will tell if these two adversaries can prevent an even larger conflagration. Cheers!
- The sporadic airstrikes and military posturing along the Line of Control have raised concerns about an accidental escalation, as shown by experts [3][4][5].
- Amidst the diplomatic disdain, Pakistan's obsession with water resources and India's anti-terrorism operations in Kashmir are preparing the ground for further disputes in Pakistani-Indian relations [3][4].
- The escalating threats and closed borders are reflections of the extraordinary deterioration in the post-1971 agreements, increasing the risks of a larger conflagration in general-news [3][4][5].
- The ongoing politics and crime-and-justice issues, following the Pahalgam attack, have escalated tensions between India and Pakistan, casting a shadow over the future of bilateral relations [3].
