Escalating rivalry between Trump and Brazil-India: Understanding the factors fueling the antagonism
The United States has recently imposed significant tariffs on Brazil and India, escalating trade and political tensions under the Trump administration in 2025.
For Brazil, a 40% tariff on most Brazilian-origin goods imported into the U.S. took effect on August 6, 2025. This follows an executive order issued on July 30, 2025, declaring a national emergency based on actions by Brazilian officials—particularly Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes—and the Brazilian government that are seen as politically motivated repression of U.S. persons and companies, undermining rule of law, and interfering with U.S. national security and economic interests.
A delegation of eight Brazilian senators traveled to Washington in a bid to prevent the Americans from imposing this tariff, which could harm Brazil's export revenues. The delegation included Jacques Wagner, Senate leader for President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, and Marcos Pontes, a senator from the political bloc of former president Jair Bolsonaro. Upon landing, the senators received a swift answer regarding the potential tariff. However, the White House did not agree to meet the Brazilian senators, and most of their time was spent with Democratic senators who, while cordial and sympathetic, had no power to change the Trump administration’s course. Thom Tillis, a rare Republican Trump critic with limited influence over trade policy, was the only senator who agreed to talk to the Brazilian senators.
For India, a 25% "reciprocal" tariff has been in place since August 7, 2025. Starting August 27, 2025, the U.S. plans to impose an additional 25% tariff on Indian goods, specifically linked to India's purchase of Russian crude oil. This would bring the total tariffs on Indian exports to the U.S. up to 50%. The tariffs are perceived by Indian officials as pressure tactics on trade negotiations and attempts to influence India’s energy procurement decisions amid the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
These tariffs are part of a broader U.S. strategy aimed at rectifying trade imbalances and addressing national security risks through "reciprocal tariffs". They also include the suspension of the duty-free de minimis exemption for imports from all countries, further increasing tariff burdens on smaller shipments regardless of value, mode of transportation, or origin.
The 40% tariff on Brazilian goods substantially raises costs for U.S. importers, likely reducing Brazilian exports to the U.S. and straining bilateral relations. The measure is directly tied to political issues and challenges Brazil's legal and electoral integrity from the U.S. perspective. The up to 50% tariff on Indian goods threatens India's export sectors, particularly affecting industries dependent on U.S. markets. It also complicates India-U.S. trade negotiations and highlights geopolitical tensions over energy procurement and diplomacy concerning Russia.
The simultaneous increase and broadening of tariffs signal a more aggressive U.S. trade policy stance that risks retaliatory actions and disruption in global supply chains. The political stand-off between the two leaders had repercussions beyond Brazil's borders, with the implications of these tariffs extending far beyond the trade arena.
[1] https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-imposes-40-tariff-brazilian-goods-citing-national-security-risks-2021-08-06/ [2] https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-imposes-additional-25-tariff-indian-goods-citing-national-security-risks-2021-08-27/ [3] https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-suspends-duty-free-de-minimis-exemption-imports-all-countries-2021-08-27/ [4] https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/presidential-actions/2021/08/06/executive-order-on-addressing-the-unfair-and-unjustified-acts-and-policies-of-foreign-adversaries-to-secure-american-bulk-power-systems/ [5] https://www.reuters.com/world/india/india-says-us-tariffs-on-its-goods-are-pressure-tactics-2021-08-27/
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