Escalating Israel-Iran conflict could mark the burial of post-war international status quo
In a stunning turn of events, on October 12, 2023, Israel, with its allies reeling from Hamas' representational bloodshed in southern Israel, confronted reporters with a straightforward response from then Pentagon chief Lloyd Austin regarding Washington's security assistance—a resounding "no," predicated on faith in Israel's military's capacity to do what's right in its ongoing war against Tehran-backed militias.
Twenty months later, Israel's efforts have expanded exponentially, resulting in the annihilation of Gaza, decimation of Lebanon, expansion in Syria, and direct attacks on Iran. Throughout this period, Israel's ultra-nationalist leadership has glossed over the evidence of war crimes in Gaza, leading to the International Criminal Court's issuance of a warrant for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's arrest in November 2024. Senior cabinet members have even advocated for forced removal of Gaza's population — an act that amounts to genocide — and the dismemberment of Syria.
Netanyahu himself has discussed the possibility of assassinating Iran's head of state and precipitating "regime change" in the Islamic Republic in interviews with US media. This escalation is a "natural consequence of the impunity that has prevailed in the region over the past two years," says H.A. Hellyer, a senior research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies (RUSI) in London.
"The fact that Israel has faced no consequences for repeatedly infringing international law sends a very clear signal: that if it chooses to do more, it can," explains Hellyer. "And it can count on the most powerful actors in the international community simply not doing very much—or actually empowering and emboldening it."
The consequences of Israeli impunity in the Middle East are manifold. The most immediate outcome is the suffering inflicted upon civilian populations, particularly Gaza, where Israel's relentless campaign has resulted in the deaths of 55,000 people, as per local health officials, and rendered the already narrow strip largely uninhabitable. The long-term implication, with potentially far-reaching consequences, is the further erosion of the rules-based order established since World War II.
Karim Emile Bitar, a Middle East expert at Beirut's Saint-Joseph University and visiting professor at Sciences-Po Paris, states, "Recent events have driven the final nail into the coffin of international law and of what has been referred to as the liberal international order. The message to the world is that if might is on your side, you can break all the rules, trample on international law, and there will be absolutely no accountability."
Netanyahu has boldly described Israel's actions as ushering in a "new Middle East," a claim that has legacy since the 2003 Iraq War, when the US and allies attempted to transform the region—with devastating consequences. Hellyer comments, "There has been a lot of jubilation (among critics of Iran), imagining that these are the 'birth pangs' of some sort of new Middle East. On the contrary, this is a spiral of violence, fostered by an environment of impunity that allows for vigilante action to take place without repercussions."
Iranians brace themselves for the worst after Israeli strikes, fearing another Israeli onslaught. The impunity enjoyed by Israel in the Middle East not only inflicts immense suffering on civilian populations but also imperils the rules-based order established since World War II. With the United Nations, Western allies, and global powers largely resorting to toothless condemnations, Israel stands unchecked in its aggressive actions and flagrant disregard for international law.
- The Israeli government's actions, such as the annihilation of Gaza and the decimation of Lebanon, have raised concerns about potential human rights violations and war crimes, as highlighted by the International Criminal Court's warrant for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's arrest.
- The escalating conflict in the Middle East has also sparked discussions about health and the environment, with concerns about the impact of war on public health in affected regions, as well as the long-term consequences of environmental damage caused by military operations.
- The political landscape in the Middle East has been significantly influenced by the ongoing conflict, with policy-and-legislation changes reflecting the new power dynamics, and questions being raised about the accountability and legitimacy of decisions made by key players in the region.
- The general news media has been filled with reports about the crime-and-justice implications of the ongoing conflict, as well as discussions about the role of science and technology in shaping the course of the conflict and potential future military strategies.
