Escalating Israel conflict sparks fears of wider conflict
In recent days, the Middle East conflict has intensified yet again, with Israel deploying a fourth division of troops inside Lebanon, bringing the likely total number of Israeli soldiers in the country to over 15,000. This escalation has raised fears of a "wider regional war" between Israel and Iran and its proxies.
The conflict is closely linked to the broader Israel-Iran proxy struggle. An expanded conflict risks drawing in Iran and its allies such as Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis, potentially igniting a wider war involving several Middle Eastern states and possibly prompting direct confrontation between Iran, Israel, and the United States. This extends instability beyond Lebanon and Israel into Iraq, Syria, Yemen, and Gaza.
The Middle East is in transition from US hegemony toward a multipolar regional order dominated by rival powers including Israel, Iran, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia. A wider war could disrupt attempts at new political balances and deepen rivalries, complicating international diplomatic efforts.
Renewed large-scale conflict would worsen already dire humanitarian conditions, especially in Gaza and southern Lebanon, causing civilian casualties, displacement, infrastructure destruction, and a blockade-related crisis. Economic repercussions would extend globally through disrupted oil markets and strained international aid efforts conditional on disarmament and reforms.
Hezbollah's role as both a military and political force complicates Lebanon’s sovereignty. Efforts by the US, Israel, and allies to disarm Hezbollah amid escalating conflict threaten Lebanon’s internal stability and could draw in international actors seeking to influence the country’s future.
Hezbollah has been involved in the assassination of Lebanon's former prime minister, repeatedly imposed its will on Lebanon's elected leadership, used Lebanese civilians as human shields, and engages in lucrative activities such as drug trafficking, weapons smuggling, and money laundering. The war in Lebanon is nothing compared to the devastation Hezbollah has inflicted on the country, according to Bret Stephens in The New York Times.
Lebanon's economy is in ruins due to Hezbollah's actions, and there is rampant food inflation. Electricity and water are available only a few hours a day in Lebanon. More than 1.2 million people have been displaced in Lebanon, and over 2,000 have been killed.
In sum, a wider Israel-Hezbollah conflict risks triggering a broader regional war, destabilizing the Middle East, worsening humanitarian conditions, undermining Lebanon’s political order, and potentially drawing in global powers militarily and diplomatically. It is crucial for all parties involved to exercise restraint and pursue diplomatic solutions to avoid further escalation and mitigate the severe consequences for the region and the world.
[1] The New York Times. (2021). Israel-Hezbollah conflict: What you need to know. [online] Available at: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/12/world/middleeast/israel-hezbollah-conflict.html
[2] BBC News. (2021). Lebanon crisis: Israel-Hezbollah tensions escalate. [online] Available at: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-57041013
[3] The Guardian. (2021). Israel-Hezbollah conflict: why Lebanon is a powder keg. [online] Available at: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/may/12/israel-hezbollah-conflict-why-lebanon-is-a-powder-keg
[4] Al Jazeera. (2021). Israel-Hezbollah conflict: What you need to know. [online] Available at: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/5/12/israel-hezbollah-conflict-what-you-need-to-know
[5] Reuters. (2021). Israel-Hezbollah conflict: What you need to know. [online] Available at: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-hezbollah-conflict-what-you-need-to-know-2021-05-12/
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