Escalating Iran-Israel tensions show no signs of abating, leaving India in a difficult position
Verrière de expressed thoughts:
The world is entangled in a self-destructive conflict like never before since the end of World War II in 1945. Both global and regional upheavals plague the geopolitical landscape, leading to frequent, shocking conflicts in unforeseen regions and scenarios. The latest disturbance is the Israel-Iran war, an ongoing confrontation that erupted on June 13. Israel, supported by Mossad, their celebrated intelligence service, initiated Operation Sea Lion on that day, launching attacks on militarily significant targets across Iran, including nuclear facilities, heavy water plants, command and control centers, and airbases.
Israel, wary of an existential threat from Iran, especially if they acquire nuclear capabilities soon, has faced retaliation from Iran, enduring a barrage of long-range ballistic missiles, drones, and more. Both sides have seen significant casualties and destruction, with considerable damage to Iran's nuclear infrastructure, including the ARAK heavy water reactor and the nuclear weapons producing facility at Natanz. The threat between the two nations has escalated without any sign of abating, despite calls from many countries, including India, to end this conflict. The US, who recently declared they were eager to achieve a ceasefire, now appears reluctant and is placing challenging conditions on Iran, demanding their surrender. No self-respecting nation can accept such humiliation, ensuring the conflict continues.
The highly advanced arsenal Israel employs, striking Iranian targets using pinpoint accuracy missiles and drones, has been a significant factor in the war. Remarkably, Israel claims control of Iranian airspace. As the conflict persists, Iranians in major towns evacuate their homes, and students studying in Tehran and other Iranian cities have fled. India has launched Operation Sindhu to evacuate students and other Indian nationals through Iran's border with Armenia.
India finds itself in a difficult position due to its cordial relationships with both Iran and Israel. Iran offers India cultural and civilizational ties, oil at lower rates, and at times payments using the rupee. Meanwhile, Israel has supported India right since the 1971 operations and during the Kargil conflict. More recently, they have provided ammunition and equipment according to India's needs, including hi-tech state-of-the-art equipment like drones, long-range missiles, and more. However, the intensification of the Israel-Iran war poses a significant harm to India.
Iran's Chabahar port is an essential connection for India, granting it access to Central Asia, vital for both energy security and the abundance of rare earth minerals. An Iran-Israel war may disrupt India's trade with Central Asia, delay the progress of the International North-South Corridor, and impede India-Afghan trade via Pakistan. China could potentially replace India in their matrix with Kabul.
Another concern is the potential disruption to India's energy supplies due to the air war between Iran and Israel. India obtains nearly 80% of its crude oil requirements from the Middle East region, and the ongoing conflict has led to a hike in oil prices and substantial transport cost increases. This has had a negative impact on inflation and the current account deficit.
The conflict has brought Pakistan back into the limelight in South Asia. While India suffers from terrorism originating from the border, it cannot be equated with Pakistan, often recognized as the epicenter of global terrorism. The U.S.'s focus on Pakistan's Army Chief, Asim Munir, is surprising to some analysts, who believe the United States may require airbases near the Iranian border in case of intervention, which Pakistan is willing to provide. This could potentially rehyphenate Pakistan with India, with Trump altering his stance and once again linking the two nations.
Pakistan will demand reparations from the U.S., encouraging them to continue terror-driven activities in South Asia. Iran, meanwhile, is unlikely to appreciate Pakistan's current relationship with the U.S., as Iran sees the U.S. as an enemy. As the situation escalates, and the Iran-Israel conflict shows no signs of ending, both the Middle East and South Asia are heading towards violent turmoil in the near future. In an effort to promote peace, India must urgently convene a peace-seeking conference with the concerned parties in New Delhi, spreading a message of harmony from the land of Mahatma Gandhi.
The writer, a retired lieutenant-general, was the first head of India's Defense Intelligence Agency and is a strategic analyst.
Politics surrounding the ongoing Israel-Iran war, a war-and-conflict that erupted on June 13, has become a general-news topic of concern for many countries, with India trying to negotiate its position due to its cordial relationships with both nations. The war has potential implications on India's access to Central Asia, energy security, and trade, making it crucial for India to actively participate in peace talks to alleviate the escalating tensions and prevent a future of violent turmoil in both the Middle East and South Asia.
