Escalating Conflict Between Bilawal Bhutto and Pakistan-India: Water Disputes and Security Issues Intensify Tensions

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The Indus Waters Treaty, a 60-year-old agreement that governs the sharing of water from six major rivers between India and Pakistan, has hit a snag. In April 2025, India unilaterally suspended the treaty, citing security concerns following a terrorist attack allegedly linked to Pakistan.

Since then, India has intensified dam operations, causing a reported 20% reduction in river water levels that impact Pakistan’s summer crops. This move has not been taken lightly by Pakistan, with its leaders issuing explicit war threats.

Pakistan's former foreign minister, Bilawal Bhutto, has warned of possible war with India, a sentiment echoed by the country's military chief who issued veiled nuclear threats. Pakistan views India's actions as a prelude to further territorial and resource control.

The Permanent Court of Arbitration has ruled India’s suspension of the treaty invalid, affirming the treaty remains in force unless both parties mutually agree to end it. However, India has rejected this ruling and continues its stance, escalating downstream water insecurity for Pakistan.

Pakistan is heavily dependent on the Indus Basin waters for agriculture and economy, making this dispute a genuine security concern. The crisis has led to an unprecedented situation, affecting millions of people and a significant share of Pakistan's GDP.

Despite the war rhetoric and nuclear threats, international diplomatic efforts have been urgently mobilized to prevent actual armed conflict. The success of these efforts will depend on whether political leaders are willing to temper their rhetoric. The World Bank's technical mediation could play a crucial role in this regard.

The 2019 Pulwama-Balakot crisis saw foreign investment in both India and Pakistan stall, with estimated regional losses exceeding $3 billion. A similar economic crisis could ensue if the current water dispute escalates further.

Climate change is straining the Indus river system due to Himalayan glacial melt and erratic monsoons. Without coordinated management, both India and Pakistan face long-term water scarcity, which could make disputes like the one behind the Bilawal Bhutto war threat more frequent and more dangerous.

The United Nations has historically urged restraint in South Asian conflicts involving nuclear-armed neighbors. As the water dispute between India and Pakistan continues, the world watches with bated breath, hoping for a peaceful resolution.

References:

[1] BBC News. (2025). India-Pakistan water dispute: What's happening? [online] Available at: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-57681186

[2] Al Jazeera. (2025). Pakistan warns India of war over water dispute. [online] Available at: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/4/15/pakistan-warns-india-of-war-over-water-dispute

[3] The Hindu. (2025). Pakistan approaches Permanent Court of Arbitration over Indus Waters Treaty. [online] Available at: https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/pakistan-approaches-permanent-court-of-arbitration-over-indus-waters-treaty/article31264080.ece

[4] Dawn. (2025). Bilawal Bhutto warns of war with India over water dispute. [online] Available at: https://www.dawn.com/news/1638374

[5] Reuters. (2025). Pakistan, India face diplomatic pressure to resolve water dispute. [online] Available at: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-india-pakistan-water/pakistan-india-face-diplomatic-pressure-to-resolve-water-dispute-idUSKCN2RY232

Escalating Conflict Between Bilawal Bhutto and Pakistan-India: Water Disputes and Security Issues Intensify Tensions