Error in Biden's Employment Graph: 'Massive Flaw' Identified; Dismissal of BLS Chief and Economist's Opinion on Trump's Action Justified
In a controversial move, pro-Trump economist Stephen Moore presented unpublished data from the Census Bureau in the Oval Office on August 7, 2025, claiming that the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) had overestimated job creation by 1.5 million jobs during the final two years of the Biden administration.
Moore, who is a Senior Visiting Fellow for Economics at the Heritage Foundation, argued that this overestimation was a "gigantic error" and supported former President Donald Trump's decision to fire Erika McEntarfer, the head of the BLS, who was appointed during the Biden administration.
Trump echoed Moore's assertion, suggesting that the overestimation might have been deliberate rather than an error, aimed at politically benefiting Democrats during the 2024 election cycle. He joked that the overestimation might not have been due to error, but rather due to incompetence instead. Trump also claimed that McEntarfer readjusted the numbers downward after he won the election to make them look worse.
However, the claim is disputed by other experts, including a former BLS Commissioner, William Beach, who ran the BLS during Trump's first term. Beach, a colleague of Moore's, publicly stated that the numbers presented were "the strangest thing in the world," indicating skepticism about the claim or its interpretation of BLS data.
The overestimation claim is based on unpublished revisions to Census Bureau data and involves estimated benchmark and monthly revisions, but these figures have not been universally accepted or independently verified in the public domain.
The firing of McEntarfer drew widespread condemnation from Trump's critics. William Beach argued that the firing sets a dangerous precedent and undermines the statistical mission of the Bureau.
During the Oval Office presentation, Moore used the new data from the Census Bureau to compare family income numbers under Biden with those during Trump's first term. He claimed that the average family income saw a $6,400 real after-inflation gain in income under President Trump, compared to a $551 gain under President Biden.
The July jobs report was weaker than expected and previous two month's reports were revised downward, suggesting that the economy was not as strong as previously expected. The revisions cast a shadow over the job creation statistics, adding fuel to the controversy surrounding Moore's claims.
[1] Fox News Digital. (2025, August 7). Trump economist claims BLS overestimated job creation by 1.5 million jobs. [online] Available at: https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-economist-claims-bls-overestimated-job-creation-by-1-5-million-jobs
[4] The Hill. (2025, August 8). Former BLS commissioner questions Stephen Moore's job creation claim. [online] Available at: https://thehill.com/policy/economy/584148-former-bls-commissioner-questions-stephen-moore-job-creation-claim
[5] CNN. (2025, August 9). Trump suggests BLS job numbers were intentionally overestimated. [online] Available at: https://www.cnn.com/2025/08/09/politics/trump-bls-job-numbers-overestimated/index.html
- The controversy surrounding the job creation statistics deepens, as former BLS Commissioner William Beach questions the authenticity of Stephen Moore's claim about the Bureau of Labor Statistics overestimating job creation by 1.5 million jobs.
- Asset evaluation in the economy becomes increasingly complex, with the general news floor debating Trump's allegation that the BLS job numbers could have been intentionally overestimated for political gains during the 2024 election cycle.
- Amid the ongoing investigation into the job creation statistics, crime-and-justice matters appear to take a backseat in the political arena, as focus intensifies on the consequences of manipulating economic data, such as policy-and-legislation implications and the potential harm it might cause.
