Erick Fedde's performance for the Cardinals has been less than impressive, and it's time to address this openly.
In the heart of the 2025 Major League Baseball season, the St. Louis Cardinals find themselves grappling with the underperformance of starting pitcher Erick Fedde. Fedde's struggles this year have been pronounced, with several key pitching deficiencies contributing to his woes.
Fedde's strikeout rate is the lowest among MLB starters throwing 90+ innings, indicating a critical inability to miss bats. His walk rate is near the bottom, showing issues with command and control. The contact rate against him is alarmingly high, meaning hitters are making solid contact frequently, reducing his effectiveness.
Over his recent starts, Fedde surrendered 14 earned runs in just two outings, highlighting a sharp decline in performance. Despite a solid 2024 season post-KBO stint, underlying metrics like expected ERA and FIP suggested he was due for regression, which came true in 2025 with added control problems and failure to "put away" hitters.
The Cardinals' decision to retain Fedde has been widely criticized as a mistake. Holding onto him has been argued to have made him effectively a "net-negative" player, diminishing the team's playoff hopes and rotation stability. The Cardinals now have promising young pitchers like Michael McGreevy, Quinn Mathews, and Tekoah Roby ready to step into rotation roles, making Fedde expendable.
Keeping Fedde has also limited roster flexibility and prevented the team from adding more reliable or cost-effective veteran pitchers, such as Jose Quintana or Kyle Gibson, who could provide steadier depth. The Cardinals' failure to adapt quickly to Fedde's performance collapse could threaten their rotation in a critical stretch of the season.
Fedde's WHIP now ranks 13th-worst among qualified starters as opposed to the 25th best among starters last year. His first half-numbers were encouraging last year, but he regressed in the second half and was a "sell now before it's too late" candidate for the Cardinals, according to FanGraph's Ben Clemens.
Fedde ranks in the bottom 35% of qualified starters in innings pitched and tied for 54th in baseball in quality starts with 21 other starters. His put away rate for his cutter/sweeper against right-handed batters has dropped significantly this year, causing him to throw more pitches, have less strikeouts, and give batters more chances to do damage.
Fedde's xERA and xFIP ratings are the fifth-worst and second-worst among qualified starters respectively. His command has cratered this year, with his BB% dropping from the 63rd percentile last year to the 25th percentile this year. Fedde ranks in the 10th percentile in xBA, 19th percentile in average exit velocity allowed, and 25th in hard-hit percentage off of him.
The debate about whether the Cardinals should have traded Fedde has been a hot topic, with the podcast "Philosophical Differences" discussing this topic between the writer and Brenden Schaeffer. Many others have been advocating for Fedde to be traded for months, citing the potential for acquiring prospects or better assets that could bolster the team's future prospects.
As the season progresses, the Cardinals will need to weigh the potential benefits of holding onto Fedde against the risks of his continued struggles. The team's playoff hopes and roster flexibility could hinge on this decision.
Despite Erick Fedde's poor performance during the 2025 Major League Baseball season, with his strikeout rate being the lowest among MLB starters throwing 90+ innings, the Cardinals have yet to consider trading him. The Cardinals' decision to retain Fedde has been argued to have limited roster flexibility and prevented the addition of more reliable or cost-effective veteran pitchers, such as Jose Quintana or Kyle Gibson, who could provide steadier depth to the team's rotation.
