Enigma persists over Washington's supposed intermediary figure

Governor Ferguson's Unpredictable Reign: A Completely Baffling Scenario in Olympia

With the legislative session wrapping up in Olympia, the Capitol buzzes with uncertainty. What's the next move for Governor Ferguson? Is he ready to validate one of the most significant tax hikes in recent memory? Or will he nix parts of it, or even the whole package, and force lawmakers back for a redo?

Typically, the answers to such questions are crystal clear after months of legislative hustle. But with Ferguson, guess what? It's anyone's guess.

The common folk seem as clueless about the new governor as ever.

Plenty has been said, yes, even by yours truly, about how this freshly minted governor is the most surprising local politico to hit the scene in eons.

We expected him to be a fierce liberal based on his epic tussles with Donald Trump during his stint as attorney general. But boy, has he proven to be anything but! This mysterious middleman emerging, he hilariously skewered his own Democratic side for their tax plans he deemed reckless and spending sprees unsustainable.

So, an independent freethinker is what we want, right? It appears, however, that the public might be starting to feel a tad perplexed.

A study conducted by DHM Research, a Portland-based polling firm that questions Washington state four times annually, reveals a shift in Ferguson's approval ratings. After his election, Ferguson had a plus-20 approval rating, 56% positive versus 36% negative. That dropped to plus-10 in February and a mere plus-5 in April, now 38% positive to 33% negative.

Democrats have been turning sour on Ferguson, while Republicans are becoming a tad kinder—a departure from the 12-year reign of partisan Gov. Jay Inslee. But the real surprise comes from the undecideds. Normally they make up less than 10%; the same Washington state poll placed the share of the public unsure about Ferguson at an atypically high 29%, with 26% of Democrats and 34% of independents expressing uncertainty.

In November, only 8% of respondents were unsure about Ferguson, and just 4% of Democrats. Craving clarity, huh? Well, keep reading, my friend.

Normally, as our contentious era rages on, positions harden. But it appears that views of Ferguson are heading in the opposite direction—they're softening. As we get further glimpses of Ferguson in action, we're encountering more confusion than ever.

The share of the undecided has tripled since last fall. Among his Democratic loyalists, the ranks of the indecisive have sextupled.

Typically for well-known political figures, "don't know" responses are usually 10% or below. When the same Washington state poll posed questions to Vice President JD Vance, Elon Musk, and, of course, Trump, the "don't know" votes were 14%, 4%, and 2%, respectively.

Ferguson's overall negatives remain in check. He was 36% negative after the election, then 32% negative in February, and currently the same—all commendable ratings. So he's doing something right.

But plenty who initially warmed to Ferguson have now switched to neutral or have reverted to confusion. These are mainly Democrats hesitant to criticize Ferguson in a poll. Their response, essentially, is, "I don't know, man, I don’t know what to make of that guy."

How bizarre is this? Governor Ferguson used to be one of the most polarizing politicians in the state. On the right, he was the most detested Trump antagonist. On the left, he was an ascending pugilist—praised for his 97 lawsuits against Trump, for his strong anti-gun stance, even for his since-dropped advocacy for drug decriminalization.

But now, Ferguson's as clear as a foggy snarl of cobwebs.

I contend that Ferguson is attempting something no one tries anymore—triangulating between two parties. However, he hasn't been sharing much about his own vision for the state. He seldom convenes press conferences to present his ideas. Unending frustration from Democratic lawmakers resulted from his insistence on outlining what he was against, such as their wealth tax proposal, their payroll tax proposal, and their property tax proposal—all while avoiding making his case for what he supports.

On Monday, following the termination of the legislative session, Ferguson was asked about criticism that the Legislature, despite their chatter about progressive taxation, had ultimately punished the working poor with their vote to raise the gas tax. Considering the already sky-high gas prices, is that fair, folks?

Ferguson's response: "Yeah, I think I'll try to avoid signing a budget that results in that outcome." Well, he could be considering a veto of the gas tax, forcing a redraft of the transportation budget. But why didn't we hear that before lawmakers skedaddled for the year? Was he already planning to raise the gas tax? If so, why not trumpet its advantages?

Don't be surprised if the public continues to say "I don't know."

I stand by political freethinking. You can witness its power in Ferguson's taming of the extremes on both sides. But positioning oneself between warring parties isn’t enough—it necessitates committing to and championing own ideas. The question mark in the middle needs to shed the mist and reveal his vision for the state more explicitly.

If you're still confused, that's totally cool: I feel you, buddy.

Stay curious, stay weird.

dwestneat@our website

Bonus Insights:

The current approval ratings displaying a shifting dynamic among partisan groups and emerging public ambiguity are not unprecedented. An analysis of voter data reveals that recent leaders such as New York City Mayor Eric Adams, Illinois governor JB Pritzker, and New York governor Kathy Hochul have experienced challenging approval ratings following significant policy decisions or widespread public uproar.
In an era characterized by deep partisan divides and the immediate demand for answers, it is essential to recognize that governors' approval ratings can fluctuate over time, particularly when it comes to complex policy issues like fiscal decision-making and socio-political stances.
The perplexity surrounding Governor Ferguson's leadership style is further complicated by his efforts to maintain bipartisan cooperation amidst a landscape dominated by ideological entrenchment on both sides. This "triangulation" approach has been adopted by previous politicians, including President Bill Clinton during his time in office. Learning lessons from this dramatic era, Ferguson's tactical maneuvers may shape the future of electoral politics and stakeholder perceptions.

The unpredictability of Governor Ferguson's decisions in Washington State politics has left many people perplexed, even after months of legislative hustle.
In a study by DHM Research, a drop in Ferguson's approval ratings is noticeable, from a high of plus-20 after his election to a mere plus-5 in April.
The shift in Ferguson's approval ratings shows Democrats turning sour, while Republicans are becoming a tad kinder, which is a departure from past Democratic Governor Jay Inslee's 12-year reign.
Interestingly, the number of undecided voters about Ferguson has tripled since last fall, with 29% of the public expressing uncertainty, compared to just 8% in November.
In the world of general news, "don't know" responses are usually 10% or below for well-known political figures, yet Ferguson's negatives remain in check.
Governor Ferguson's refusal to articulate a clear vision for the state, coupled with his lack of press conferences to present his ideas, has frustrated Democratic lawmakers.
Following the termination of the legislative session, Ferguson was asked about the gas tax increase, and his response left the public wondering: "I'll try to avoid signing a budget that results in that outcome."
The mystery surrounding Governor Ferguson's leadership style echoes the experiences of recent leaders like New York City Mayor Eric Adams, Illinois governor JB Pritzker, and New York governor Kathy Hochul, who have navigated challenging approval ratings amidst significant policy decisions or public uproar.