Enhanced hurricane activity forecasted for the rest of 2025, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and Colorado State University (CSU) have both issued updated forecasts for the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season, predicting an above-average number of storms.
According to NOAA, the updated forecast predicts 13 to 18 total named storms for the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season, including 5 to 9 hurricanes, with 2 to 5 major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher). NOAA states there is a 50% chance of above-average activity, a 35% chance of near-average, and a 15% chance of below-average activity[1][2][3].
The CSU team forecasts 16 named storms, of which 8 could become hurricanes, and 3 may reach major hurricane strength. Their prediction includes the three storms that had already formed by early August 2025. CSU bases their forecast on multiple statistical and dynamical models and notes that 2025 shows similarities to years with slightly above-average activity such as 2001, 2008, 2011, and 2021[4].
In a statement, Matt Rosencrans, the lead hurricane season forecaster at NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Prediction, stated that many of the factors identified ahead of the season are still at play, and conditions are largely tracking along with the May predictions.
The updated assessment was released on Thursday. CSU will be issuing its two-week forecasts from Thursday through the peak of the season. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has updated its hurricane forecast for the remainder of the current season.
As of Thursday, the 2025 season has seen four named tropical storms and no hurricanes. The names Andrea, Barry, Chantal, and Dexter have been used so far. Erin is the next name up.
The key weather and climate factors influencing the updated forecasts include warming sea surface temperatures in the eastern and central Atlantic, and cool, neutral conditions in the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) expected during the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season.
In summary, both forecasts indicate a likely above-average Atlantic hurricane season in 2025, with a slight difference in the expected number of storms and hurricanes but generally consistent outlooks[1][2][3][4]. The updated forecasts were contributed to by Matthew Glasser, Dan Manzo, Kyle Reiman, Dan Peck, and Sam Wnek.
[1] https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/noaa-forecasts-above-normal-atlantic-hurricane-season [2] https://www.csu.edu/~hurricane/2025/index.html [3] https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ [4] https://www.csu.edu/~hurricane/2025/forecast.html
- The scientific study of the Earth's atmosphere, climate, and weather patterns, known as environmental science and climate science, is crucial in understanding the forthcoming 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season, characterized by an expected above-average number of storms.
- As the updated forecasts for the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season anticipate extreme weather conditions, it is imperative to consider the potential impact these hurricanes may have on the environment, particularly coastal regions that are susceptible to flooding, erosion, and storm damage.
- Climate-change simulations suggest that warming sea surface temperatures in the eastern and central Atlantic, combined with cool, neutral ENSO conditions, could lead to more frequent and intense hurricanes, underscoring the significance of these forecasts in responding to and adapting to the challenges posed by climate change.
){kind=link}