Electoral Patterns: Whom Do They Indicate as Potential Winners Between Machado/González and Maduro?
In this unprecedented exploration, readers can delve into an in-depth analysis of the results from all national elections during the current Chavismo era, spanning from 1998 to 2024. Compiled within the easy-to-navigate table "Venezuela: All National Electoral Results, 1998-2024," this comprehensive data includes Presidential, Constituent Assembly, National Assembly, and various referendum outcomes. [See table below.]
It's essential to compare like with like, so this analysis excludes local, regional, and municipal elections as separate processes. The focus here is the contentious July 28, 2024 presidential election, compared to similar elections since 1998. In this context, Chavismo has only lost two elections according to the data, as indicated by the shading in the table. Surprisingly, even this loss raises concerns about the validity of the "fraud" accusation.
Diving into the debate, is the U.S.-backed "fraud" story credible, or is Venezuela's constitutionally established national electoral council, the Consejo Nacional Electoral (CNE), more trustworthy? It's a question of one or the other, disregarding the constitutional legality of Venezuela's official electoral bodies.
Let's temporarily consider the opposition narrative. Ignoring the legal authority of the Constitution, does voting behavior and demographic trends favor the credibility of Machado/ González or Nicolás Maduro?
Of the initial five electoral results, self-explanatory, save for the 1999 Constitutional Referendum, which requires some explanation. Hugo Chávez's primary campaign promise was the need for a new constitution. Thus, the 1999 Constitutional Referendum included two questions: "Do you convene a National Constituent Assembly with the purpose of transforming the State and creating a new legal system that allows the effective functioning of a social and participatory democracy?" and "Do you authorize the President of the Republic so that after hearing the opinion of the political, social, and economic sectors, the Government Act establishes the bases of an electoral process in which the members of the Constituent Assembly will be elected?" These were resoundingly approved, as per the table.
In 2004, the opposition initiated the Recall Referendum after securing the required signatures. The question asked, "Do you agree to revoke, for the current term, the popular mandate as President of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela granted to citizen Hugo Rafael Chávez Frías through democratic and legitimate elections? NO or YES?" The NO vote emerged victorious, denying the opposition its aim of revoking Chávez.
Held in 2007, Chávez initiated the Constitutional Referendum, comprising two blocks of questions associated with 69 constitutional amendments, primarily addressing the elimination of term limits for presidential elections and policies benefiting working people. It was narrowly defeated. The only other electoral setback for Chavismo occurred in the 2015 National Assembly elections, explained further below.
What do the voting trends signify regarding the credibility of contending narratives concerning the July 28 election results? The opposition claims to have won by a landslide based on their own Miami calculations. Conversely, Maduro acknowledges the official electoral results, boasting over 6 million votes for himself. Miami and Caracas representing the obvious geographical and political divide between these claims, a simple number crunching exercise may potentially clarify the situation.
First, the 2007 Constitutional Referendum, won by the opposition, underscores the significance of the data. Despite the loss, the Chavista forces conceded, as did the opposition. However, they didn't cry "fraud" at that time. The 4.36 million Chavista votes in 2007 hold a rational comparison to the 6 million votes in favor of Maduro in 2024, contradicting the opposition narrative of a nationwide landslide victory.
Moreover, considering the 2015 National Assembly elections, Chavismo still garnered 5.62 million votes. This result aligns with the general range of recent presidential elections, further debunking the opposition's overblown claims. Although the population remained relatively stable, the registered voters increased from about 19.50 million in 2015 to about 21 million in 2024, offering a disadvantage to Chavismo in 2024. The 5.62 million votes accrued by Maduro's supporters in 2015 support the counter-narrative of the opposition's claims of an overwhelming victory.
With a noticeable decline in the popular vote for Maduro, dropping from 68% in the 2018 presidential elections to 52% in the most recent July election, does it suggest Maduro's popularity is waning, and it's implausible for him to have won the 2024 election? Not necessarily.
To probe this further, it's important to remember that the main opposition forces encouraged an election boycott in 2018. Led by the Mesa de la Unidad Democrática (MUD), this call for abstention was largely successful, culminating in a voter turnout of only 46%, marking the lowest ever for a presidential election in Venezuela (i.e., the competition for who will occupy Miraflores, the head of state offices).
However, this boycott tactic resulted in a Pyrrhic victory for the opposition due to low voter turnout. Maduro secured a record percentage of the vote in 2018. Conversely, the anomaly in voting patterns between 2018 and 2024 is partly the opposition's own doing. Furthermore, in 2018, Maduro won a number of actual votes (6.24 million) that still falls within the general range of recent presidential elections.
Finally, here's a summary of voting trends in favor of Chavismo in recent head of state elections:
- 7.30 million (2006)
- 8.19 million (2012)
- 7.58 million (2013)
- 6.40 million (2024)
Throughout this period, the polls consistently reflected similar results for other national elections, aside from the presidential vote, such as:
- The 2007 Constitutional Referendum, lost by Chavismo (4.36 million votes)
- The 2009 Constitutional Referendum (6.31 million votes)
- The 2010 National Assembly elections (5.45 million votes)
- The 2015 National Assembly elections (5.62 million votes)
- The 2020 National Assembly elections (3.91 million votes)
Thus, the 6.40 million votes for Maduro's Partido Socialista Unido de Venezuela (PSUV) on July 28 is entirely reasonable, despite the opposition's fantastical claims of a U.S.-driven sweep. On the contrary, the figures demonstrate that the opposition's fraudulent claims are unfounded. Maduro and the Bolivarian Revolution deserve support from peoples worldwide and, in particular, the governments of Latin America and the Caribbean.
Editorial notes: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the Venezuelanalysis editorial staff.
[Related Insight: The validity of the July 2024 presidential election remains questionable due to the absence of credible international oversight, persistent institutional erosion under Maduro, and documented vote discrepancies. The international community, including the EU, the U.S., Canada, left-leaning Latin American governments, the Carter Center, and UN observers, have rejected the results, citing systemic flaws.]
- Readers can examine an in-depth analysis of the results from all national elections during the Chavismo era, spanning from 1998 to 2024, compiled in the table "Venezuela: All National Electoral Results, 1998-2024."
- The focus is on the contentious July 28, 2024 presidential election and similar elections since 1998.
- According to the data, Chavismo has only lost two elections since 1998.
- The U.S.-backed "fraud" story regarding the July 28 election is questionable.
- The Venezuelan constitutionally established national electoral council, the Consejo Nacional Electoral (CNE), may be more trustworthy than the opposition narrative.
- Compared to his opponents, Hugo Chávez's primary campaign promise in 1999 was the need for a new constitution.
- The 1999 Constitutional Referendum included two questions about convening a National Constituent Assembly and transforming the State.
- In 2004, the opposition initiated the Recall Referendum, with the question regarding revoking Hugo Chávez's mandate.
- Chávez initiated the Constitutional Referendum in 2007, focusing on 69 constitutional amendments, primarily addressing presidential term limits.
- Chavismo experienced its only other electoral setback in the 2015 National Assembly elections.
- The opposition claims to have won the July 28 election by a landslide based on their own Miami calculations.
- Maduro acknowledges the official electoral results, boasting over 6 million votes for himself.
- The 2007 Constitutional Referendum, won by the opposition, underscores the significance of the data, as the Chavista forces conceded, but didn't cry "fraud" at that time.
- In 2015, Chavismo still garnered 5.62 million votes, aligning with the general range of recent presidential elections.
- The opposition's election boycott in 2018 resulted in a pyrrhic victory due to low voter turnout, allowing Maduro to secure a record percentage of the vote.
- In 2018, the anomaly in voting patterns between 2018 and 2024 is partly the opposition's own doing.
- Voting trends in favor of Chavismo in recent head of state elections have consistently reflected similar results.
- The validity of the July 2024 presidential election remains questionable due to the absence of credible international oversight and persistent institutional erosion under Maduro.
- Maduro and the Bolivarian Revolution deserve support from peoples worldwide and, in particular, the governments of Latin America and the Caribbean.
