Unpredictable Outcomes in Vienna's Elections: A Wild Ride for Babler, Stocker, and Kickl
Election's impact on parties in Vienna: its aftermath
Vienna's election is shaping up to be a rollercoaster ride, according to pollsters and political gurus. Nobody can really predict the turnout or which candidates will rally their supporters on Sunday. One thing that seems clear is that the Vienna SPÖ is set to take the lead once again. In the last election in 2020, Michael Ludwig's party swept 42% of the votes. Their advantage this time around is that they've got less to lose than Hans Peter Doskozil did in the Burgenland election - only a potential loss of four percent. Doskozil's win was larger primarily because it was virtually certain that FPO leader Herbert Kickl could become chancellor at the time.
Ludwig's score as a message to Babler
While the ÖVP-SPÖ and Neos are currently running the show in Vienna, it's not causing too much of a stink. And Lawrence, a long-time ÖVP supporter from Vienna, even admits, "We might just scrape by with 11%." Ludwig has decent personal approval ratings, so if he scores over 38%, the reds are gonna breathe a sigh of relief. If he hits above the 40% mark, he'll be a local hero in red circles, and they might tell SPÖ chairman Andreas Babler, "Take a more centrist approach - it works," according to an SPÖ strategist.
Prospects for the ÖVP in Vienna
The ÖVP couldn't be thrilled with another three-party coalition. As a seasoned Viennese black quips, "We'd have been looking at a maximum of 9% otherwise." Some ex-ÖVP supporters in Vienna might even give Ludwig their vote. The federal ÖVP has already written off a crash in Vienna, so there aren't any significant implications expected for the party. They'll still try to form a coalition with the reds, provided a "pragmatist" takes charge after the election. Ludwig's open to the idea, but only if a "sensible ÖVP leader emerges post-election."
What the FPÖ has in store
The FPÖ is all but guaranteed a triumphant comeback on Sunday. After the Ibiza video and their family feud with Strache, they garnered only 7% in 2020. FPÖ top candidate Dominik Nepp is likely to triple that. In the 2019 National Council election, the FPÖ scored 21% in Vienna. Whether they can outshine that remains to be seen. Some young FPØ guns like Herbert Kickl might have wished for a rowdier fight in Vienna. Tensions between Nepp and Kickl could surface even more after the election. Regardless of whether the blues make it to around 21% or surge even higher.
Green and Neos eyeing the throne
The Greens intend to use Vienna as a canvas to show they can still score points even after their federal government exit. Their tactic is to attract the swing vote that often wavers between red and green. At the same time, they're eager to become coalition partners for the SPÖ post-election. This enthusiasm leaves some reds blushing. The Greens' strategy will depend on the Neos since they're still the presumed favored coalition partners of the SPÖ. Whether a SPÖ-Neos coalition works out remains to be seen. Sunday might still hold a few twists, so fasten your seatbelts!
Expanded Insights:
Tactics and Allies- Greens are aiming to woo the swing vote by emphasizing their stance on environmental issues and social justice, hoping to become serious coalition partners for the SPÖ.- The Neos could play a crucial role in deciding which coalition the SPÖ aligns with, given their presumed affinity.
Key Figures and Their Role- Christian Kern, ex-chancellor and former SPÖ leader, is seen as a potential SPÖ candidate for mayor should Ludwig decide against a third term.- FPÖ's Herbert Kickl, despite not running for mayor this time around, maintains significant influencer status within the party.- If the ÖVP gains momentum, Karl Mahrer, the current leader of the Austrian People's Party and a Vienna city councilman, could be in line for a more prominent role in the city government.
- The Greens in Vienna are keen to demonstrate their continued relevance by attracting the swing vote, with hopes of becoming coalition partners for the SPÖ post-election.
- The success of the Neos in Vienna could be decisive, as they are currently seen as the presumed favored coalition partners of the SPÖ.
- If Ludwig scores over 38% in the elections, the SPÖ might advise Babler to take a more centrist approach, based on Ludwig's personal approval ratings.
- The FPÖ is anticipated to achieve a significant comeback, with top candidate Dominik Nepp expected to triple their 2020 vote. Regardless of their exact percentage, tensions between Nepp and Kickl may intensify after the elections.
