Elections Approaching in Disputed Regions: Lead of Ersin Tatar Challenged by Tufan Erhürman
In the upcoming presidential elections scheduled for October 19 in Northern Cyprus, Turkey's political and military support plays a significant role in shaping the political landscape. This influence is particularly evident in the candidates Ersin Tatar and Tufan Erhürman.
Ersin Tatar, the incumbent president and a pro-Turkey figure, benefits from Turkey’s backing. The Turkish government provides political, economic, and media support to Tatar, aligning with Turkey’s strategic interest in maintaining a strong and compliant leadership in the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC). This support reinforces Tatar’s position as the candidate aligned with Ankara’s agenda.
On the other hand, Tufan Erhürman, a former prime minister and a candidate who represents a more moderate stance, advocates for policies seeking compromise and progress on reunification talks under UN auspices. However, his position tends to have less overt Turkish backing, positioning him as an alternative to Ankara’s preferred leadership. Despite this, the prevailing influence Ankara wields over Northern Cyprus politics limits his capacity to challenge Ankara-aligned candidates effectively.
Recent polls indicate a shift in public opinion, with Erhürman leading Tatar by a significant margin. According to the poll, Erhürman secured 57% of the vote, while Tatar trails behind with 43%.
Despite trailing in polls, Tatar remains committed to the two-state solution with Turkey's backing. He has reiterated his stance during a ceremony honoring veterans in the occupied territories, where he doubled down on his support for the "state" allegedly established by Turkish Cypriots. Tatar also stated that "returning to zero troops and zero guarantees" is unacceptable, referencing the federal model proposed in peace talks.
Former Turkish-Cypriot leader Mustafa Akıncı has spoken out against the upcoming elections, suggesting that he believes Turkish influence played a role in Tatar's victory in 2020. Akıncı's criticism implies that Turkish interference may have influenced the election dynamics, although no further information about the context or the specific nature of the Turkish interference was provided.
This dynamic underscores the broader geopolitical tension surrounding Cyprus, with Turkish influence significantly shaping the electoral contest and future political direction in Northern Cyprus. The goal of Turkey remains to secure a leadership in the TRNC that supports a two-state or Turkish-aligned solution, complicating efforts for a UN-mediated federal resolution favored by Greek Cypriots and some Turkish Cypriots.
- The EU, given the ongoing political tensions in Cyprus, may find Turkey's influence in Northern Cyprus' upcoming elections concerning, as it seems Turkey is promoting candidates that align with Ankara's agenda.
- The policy-and-legislation approach of Tufan Erhürman, aiming for compromise and progress on reunification talks, could potentially receive greater international support if he manages to challenge and defeat Ersin Tatar, who has a close relationship with Turkey.
- General news outlets might focus on the potential impact of Turkish foreign policy in Cyprus' elections, especially if Erhürman's lead in the polls persists, raising questions about the future of the EU-Turkey relations and the ongoing Cyprus conflict resolution process.
