Election excitement hitting new heights: Polymarket sets new marks in bets
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With a record-breaking number of users, Dune Analytics is making waves in the industry, tallying over 31,600 people using their services.
The surge in popularity can be attributed to the electrifying U.S. presidential campaign. So far, users have shelled out around $344 million on thematic forecasts. Interestingly, Donald Trump enjoys the collective favor of the users, boasting a whopping 64% chance of victory. Kamala Harris trails behind with a 33% probability of clinching the title.
Now, let's delve into the nitty-gritty of thematic forecast services and understand what tickles the users' fancy.
Post-2016 polling failures sparked a demand for advanced models. These newer models took into account factors like education levels, geographic distribution, and even pandemic-related variables. Services offering "uncertainty quantification" (a fancy term for confidence intervals) gained traction over simplistic margin forecasts.
Sector-specific analysis was another crucial aspect. Given Trump's protectionist agenda and Harris's more globalist leanings, services likely focused on industries sensitive to trade policies - manufacturing, tech, and agriculture - during 2020 forecasts.
The demand for hedging tools, like derivatives, currency plays, and supply chain risk modeling, also saw a substantial increase. After all, who doesn't love a bit of insurance, especially when it comes to mega-events like elections!
Now, let's decode what drives user preference: Trump supporters are all about deregulation forecasts (energy, finance) and trade war impacts, mirroring recent market reactions to tariff policies. Harris and progressive audiences, on the other hand, likely prioritize healthcare expansion modeling, climate policy scenarios, and social equity impact projections.
The 2025 reports offer some intriguing market behavior insights: tariffs result in immediate market drops followed by volatility, treasury yields react to policy uncertainty, and gold demand surges as a safe haven. Pre-2020 election gold forecasts, therefore, became critical!
However, the results lack direct 2020 candidate comparison data. But recent market reactions to Trump's contentious policies suggest thematic services increasingly model policy extremity as a risk metric. Users probably demanded scenario analyses contrasting Trump's unilateralism against Harris's institutionalist approach, though this remains inferred from current materials.
Saxo Bank's 2025 analysis emphasizes three requirements that became standard for 2020 election modeling: 1) voter segment stratification, 2) geographic weighting, and 3) uncertainty disclosure.
- The surge in Dune Analytics' popularity can be attributed to the U.S. presidential campaign, with users spending around $344 million on thematic forecasts.
- Interestingly, Donald Trump enjoys a 64% chance of victory, while Kamala Harris trails behind with a 33% probability, according to the forecasts.
- Sector-specific analysis was crucial, and services likely focused on industries sensitive to trade policies, such as manufacturing, tech, and agriculture, during 2020 forecasts.
- Trump supporters appear to prioritize deregulation forecasts (in sectors like energy and finance) and trade war impacts, while Harris and progressive audiences prefer healthcare expansion modeling, climate policy scenarios, and social equity impact projections.
