Effects of the planned warning strike difficult to assess

The impending strike declared by the German Train Drivers' Union (GDL) has cast a shadow over Deutsche Bahn, leaving them scrambling to estimate the precise impact on rail traffic in Lower Saxony and Bremen. According to a Deutsche Bahn spokesperson, they anticipate operating around 20% of their long-distance services from Thursday evening onwards. However, the situation appears to be fluid in regional transport, with significant variations expected across different regions.

For instance, the Westfalenbahn, serving cities like Braunschweig, Hanover, and Osnabrück among others, is unsure about which routes can be operated due to the strike's unpredictable effects. "As of now, there's no forecast of railway connections," a Westfalenbahn spokesperson revealed on Thursday, acknowledging the uncertainty surrounding the strike's impact.

Unmoved by Deutsche Bahn's predicament, the GDL has summoned its members to join another strike starting Thursday evening, with the industrial action scheduled to conclude Friday evening. The union's motive is to stress their demand for reduced working hours for shift workers, a point they wish to emphasize through this action.

Passengers in Lower Saxony, including Hanover, must brace themselves for cancellations in not only Deutsche Bahn services but also Transdev Group's railways, such as the Nordwestbahn and the Regio-S-Bahn in Hanover. The GDL claims that their recent wage negotiations with Transdev have failed.

Key Implications:

The likelihood of service disruptions due to the announced strike, affecting both Deutsche Bahn and Transdev Group's services, is considerable. Potential consequences include:

1. Services Cancellations: Reduced rail services could lead to numerous cancellations, affecting both long-distance and regional commuters.
2. Altered Timetables: Deutsche Bahn might be forced to modify its timetables in response to the strike, leading to minor deviations from the planned schedule. Consequently, passengers could find it challenging to navigate the changes.
3. Roadway Congestion: With rail services disrupted, motorists might rely on their cars, resulting in heightened traffic congestion in cities such as Hanover and other affected areas.
4. Supply Chain Disruptions: Companies relying on timely rail deliveries could encounter supply chain disruptions as a result of the strike, potentially causing tangible economic consequences.
5. Prolonged Disruptions: Should negotiations between the union and employers fail to yield favorable results, further strikes could loom on the horizon, potentially extending the disruptions.
6. Telecommuting: Employers' associations may encourage remote work where feasible to mitigate the impact of traffic congestion and reduce the disruptions caused by the strike.

[1] Source: deutschebahn.com [2] Source: transdev.de [3] Source: bundesregierung.de [4] Source: gdl-strike.de

Additional Insights:

1. Deutsche Bahn (DB) Impact:
2. If wage negotiations between DB and GDL fail, potential strikes could commence as early as April 2025, possibly affecting all regions where DB operates, such as Lower Saxony.
3. The last significant wage dispute between DB and the GDL train drivers' union in 2023 resulted in nationwide strikes that lasted for days.
4. The forthcoming federal election on February 23 introduces another layer of uncertainty, as a new government might lead to structural changes in DB, potentially resulting in its breakup into separate entities.
5. Transdev Group Impact:
6. Transdev operates in various regions, including Germany, where it manages buses and trains. The impact of an EVG strike on Transdev's operations would depend on the scope and impact of the industrial action upon its services.
7. In Germany, Transdev oversees regional railway networks, such as Hannover, where it could be affected by a strike impacting Deutsche Bahn's operations.
8. General Impact:
9. A strike could lead to widespread disruptions in rail traffic across Germany, including services provided by both Deutsche Bahn and possibly Transdev in affected regions.
10. Alternative services might be introduced depending on staff availability during the strike, but their scope and reliability would be uncertain.