Germany's Climate Goals: A Mixed Bag Amid Economic Turmoil
Economy struggling in Germany, leading to increased focus on climate action initiatives - Economy struggles in Germany, potentially jeopardizing climate goals
Germany may only partially meet its 2030 climate goals, according to experts, but the COVID-19 pandemic and a struggling economy could offer a temporary reprieve. Hans-Martin Henning, chairman of the Expert Council on Climate Issues, reported that without this short-term economic buffer, Germany could be heading for a significant budget overshoot by 2030 [1].
Climate Budget: A Tightrope Act
The German Climate Protection Act outlines how much greenhouse gases Germany may emit each year between 2020 and 2030. This total of annual amounts creates an emissions budget, which currently falls within the allowed range. The budget, however, does not guarantee that Germany will meet its ambitious overarching goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by at least 65% by 2030 compared to 1990 [1].
A Shaky Path to Climate Neutrality
Germany seeks to achieve climate neutrality by 2045, with net-zero greenhouse gas emissions [1]. Experts warn that with the current trajectory, Germany is at risk of significantly missing this critical target [1]. According to European agreements, Germany must reduce its emissions by 50% compared to 2005 levels by 2030 [2]. However, Germany has not been on track to meet this target since last year, as per calculations by the Expert Council [2].
The Factors at Play
Political and policy inefficiencies plague Germany's efforts to meet its target [1][3]. Internal divisions within the governing coalition slow progress, as the Green Party advocates for swift action, particularly in buildings and renewable energy, while the Social Democrats and Liberal Party often delay measures. Moreover, all coalition parties support expanding LNG terminals, which opposes climate goals and hampers emission reduction efforts [1].
Another hindrance is the lack of binding sectoral emission budgets in Germany's national climate law, making it difficult to enforce emission curbs [3]. Current emission reduction policies project a reduction of 62-64%, falling short of the 65% target [1][3]. The potential for the pandemic's economic downturn to secure the 2030 target appears slim without substantial policy adjustments and structural changes [1].
A delayed negative emissions strategy and weakening of the climate law further complicate matters [1][3]. Without a strategy for negative emissions technologies such as carbon capture and storage, achieving the Paris Agreement's 1.5°C target becomes increasingly challenging [1][3].
The Road Ahead
Despite temporary emissions reductions due to economic downturn from the pandemic, achieving Germany's 2030 climate targets requires comprehensive policy implementation, political consensus, and ambitious long-term strategies [1][3]. The risks of missing these targets are compounded by political fragmentation, support for LNG infrastructure, weakened climate laws, and the need for more ambitious measures aligned with 1.5°C pathways [1][3]. Subscribe to our capital newsletter to stay updated on the most important developments in German politics.
[1] Germanwatch (2021). [2] European Environment Agency (2020). [3] Broekhoff, Maria (2022).
In brief: Germany's 2030 climate target of a 65% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions below 1990 levels (excluding LULUCF) may not be achieved due to incomplete policy implementation, political divisions, weakening of climate laws, and a need for more ambitious measures. The current trajectory risks significant shortfalls, and the COVID-19 pandemic's short-term economic relief will not be enough to secure the target. Policy adjustments, structural changes, and a stronger focus on long-term strategies are necessary [1][3].
- The environment and science play a critical role in Germany's climate goals, as the current trajectory, influenced by politics and policy-and-legislation, puts Germany at risk of significant shortfalls in meeting the 2030 target of a 65% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions.
- Climate-change mitigation efforts in Germany are challenged by internal coalition divisions, as the Green Party advocates for swift action, while the Social Democrats and Liberal Party often delay measures, thereby hindering the progress towards environmental-science-driven climate goals.
- To achieve its climate-neutrality goal by 2045, Germany needs comprehensive policy implementation, political consensus, and long-term strategies focused on ambitious emissions reduction measures, environmental policies, and potential negative emissions technologies like carbon capture and storage, while addressing the weaknesses in current climate laws and LNG infrastructure support.
