Germany's Climate Goals: A Shaky Victory Amid Economic Downturn and Mild Winter
Economic downturn drives Germany to surpass climate goal
You'd think Germany crushing its 2024 CO2 reduction goal is a cause for celebration, right? Not so fast, according to the Expert Council on Climate Questions. Despite the apparent progress, the nation's long-term climate targets aren't guaranteed.
The audit report from the Expert Council confirms that Germany has reached its short-term climate target for 2024. However, the story behind the numbers isn't as positive as it seems. The recent reduction in greenhouse gas emissions is partly due to good weather (mild winter) and a not-so-hot economy, leading to less energy consumption. As it stands, Germany is falling behind on its 2030 climate target.
Climate Measures in the Coalition Agreement: A Mixed Bag
The Expert Council raises doubts about the climate-related projects mentioned in the coalition agreement signed by the Union and SPD. While improvements in building renovation and infrastructure are on the table, the design for these projects still needs work, leaving experts uncertain about the real impact on the 2030 target. "As of today, no significant positive impetus for achieving the 2030 target can be expected from the measures announced in the coalition agreement," the audit report bluntly states.
A Tough Road Ahead
According to calculations by Germany's Environment Agency, in 2024, the nationwide greenhouse gas emissions were approximately 649 million tonnes of CO2 equivalents. This represents a 3.4% decrease compared to 2023. However, the decline is smaller than expected, and the energy industry remains the leading contender for reducing emissions, mainly through the phase-out of coal-fired power plants.
In industry, emissions remain stagnant, while in buildings and transport, they decreased slightly but missed their respective sector targets again. A significant part of the emission reduction in 2024 can be attributed to structural developments, including the expansion of renewable energies and the phase-out of coal-fired power plants.
The Road to 2030 Paved with Challenges
The expert's outlook for the future is grim: Germany is unlikely to meet its 2030 climate target, with emissions only decreasing by 63% compared to 1990 - shy of the 65% required by the Climate Protection Act.
The formal assessment by the expert council does not suggest any immediate need for action. The emissions budget valid until 2030 will be barely met overall. If the 2030 target is missed again, the federal government would be obligated to enact additional climate protection measures. The new federal government must submit a measures program within twelve months of the start of a new legislative period, outlining how the 2040 climate target will be achieved - by the end of March 2026.
A European Heatwave on the Horizon, Demanding Urgent Action
Current calculations indicate that Germany will significantly miss both the national climate targets for 2040 and the annual reduction targets. The government must "fully address" this in the climate protection program to prevent a climate catastrophe. By 2045, Germany aims to be completely climate-neutral, emitting no more greenhouse gases than can be absorbed. According to experts, Germany will also significantly miss this target.
Additional Measures from the Coalition Agreement
The current German federal government's coalition agreement includes several specific climate protection measures aimed at meeting the country's climate targets by 2030 and 2045. The measures are designed to balance climate protection with economic competitiveness and social balance.
Details of the Measures
- Promotion of Renewable Energies:
- Emphasis on renewable energy sources such as solar, wind, bioenergy, geothermal energy, and hydropower. This includes simplifying permitting processes to accelerate renewable energy projects.
- Continued expansion of wind and solar power initiated under the previous government.
- Innovation and Technology:
- Focus on innovative technologies, including carbon capture and storage (CCS) and carbon capture and utilization (CCU), viewed as essential for achieving climate neutrality by 2045.
- A new Geothermal Acceleration Act aims to mitigate exploration risks and promote geothermal energy projects.
- Energy Pricing and Affordability:
- Reduce electricity tax to the EU minimum and extend electricity price compensation until 2030 to ensure an affordable energy supply.
- Special relief for energy-intensive companies, such as industrial electricity price reductions.
- Abolish the gas storage levy.
- Grid Stability and Infrastructure:
- Consideration of Combined Cycle Gas Turbine (CCGT) power plants to ensure grid stability during the phase-out of nuclear and lignite power.
- Plans to modernize infrastructure in areas like grids, storage, hydrogen, and digitalization.
- Climate Neutrality Commitments:
- Reaffirmation of the goal to achieve climate neutrality by 2045 and commitment to the Paris Climate Protection Agreement.
- Support for the European Green Deal and Clean Industrial Act, linking competitiveness with climate protection.
Impact and Caveats of the Measures
The expected impact of these measures is to move Germany closer to its climate targets by:
- Reducing CO2 Emissions: The emphasis on renewable energy and innovative technologies like CCS and CCU is expected to significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions, contributing to the 88% reduction target by 2040.
- Achieving Climate Neutrality by 2045: By focusing on renewable energy expansion, energy efficiency, and reducing emissions, Germany aims to meet its 2045 climate neutrality goal.
- Economic and Social Balance: The measures also aim to balance economic competitiveness with climate protection and social balance, ensuring that the transition is sustainable and equitable.
However, the agreement includes caveats, such as not exceeding Germany's national climate pathway and conditional support for EU targets, which may impact the pace of progress.
- The Expert Council on Climate Questions has expressed concerns about the supportive policy for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) regarding their contributions to meeting Germany's long-term climate targets.
- The promotion of environmental-science deals with climate change within the coalition agreement, but experts remain unsure about its influence on policy-and-legislation related to the climate change mitigation efforts of SMEs in the country.
- Amidst the ongoing discussions on politics and general news, there's a growing awareness about the need for stronger climate policy within the community, particularly focusing on empowering and supporting SMEs as they adapt to the challenges of climate change and environmental issues.
