Economic base of United States undermined by Trump's deportation policies.
In the Heartland, on the Job Site, Trump's Deportations Threaten the Backbone of the US Economy
By Lukas W, NYC
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President Trump's vow to target undocumented immigrants is being implemented, yet this move might conflict with another promise - a flourishing economy.
Illegal immigrants have long been the backbone of the US workforce. They've poured concrete, cleaned toilets, picked strawberries, flipped burgers, and more. What some parts of the nation disdain, the country relies on greatly. Donald Trump won the presidency on a promise of mass deportations - demonizing migrants and polarizing public opinion. Now, as leader, Trump finds himself in a challenging position: eliminate illegal immigrants while sustaining economic growth.
Recent immigration raids have sparked protests in Los Angeles, leaving both properties in flames and skirmishes on the streets. While the immediate economic impact remains unclear, initial data suggests a potential labor market disturbance. As reported by the "New York Times," Trump now appears to be exempting certain industries from raids.
Protests and Prospects - Judgment: LA Protests Could Pave the Way for Nationwide Dilemmas
A young man living in LA told the German Press Agency, "People aren't leaving their homes. They're not going to work because it's still a tense area." Similarly, Robert Dietz, a prominent economist at the US homebuilders, echoes these concerns on NPR, sharing that the raids significantly reduce the construction workforce due to a deterrent effect. The impact may initially be local, but Dietz warns of potential consequences, especially regarding already scarce housing stock in the US.
Trump's "Border Czar," Tom Homan, reiterated a commitment to workplace raids on a massive scale, stating, "We will see more raids at workplaces than ever in the history of this nation." However, experts question whether this stance will yield positive outcomes for the US economy.
Immigrant Demographics - The United States of Many Origins
As attested by reliable statistics, around 1 in 5 employed individuals in the US in May were born overseas - more than 32 million people. They primarily occupy service jobs, work in construction, tend fields, factories, and repair roads.
According to estimates, between 10 to 12 million people live without proper residence papers in the US, and over 8 million are actively employed. These individuals are particularly prevalent in the sectors mentioned, and their absence could present challenges to many industries.
Agriculture - The Plentiful Harvest Stares at its Workforce
The U.S. Department of Agriculture reveals that two-thirds of harvest workers in 2022 were born abroad, with 42% lacking valid papers. In California, the agricultural hub, this rate is believed to be as high as 75%. Mass deportations of undocumented workers would likely be swiftly noticed on the plates of American families - either in the form of increased grocery bills or diminished choices at the supermarket.
Construction - A Halted Flow of Progress?
A study by the University of Wisconsin found that 70% of the labor on dairy farms in the state is performed by workers lacking proper papers. Given the potential for higher milk prices to affect popular sentiment, Trump has hinted at potential changes to his immigration policy. Yet, relying on undocumented labor can also have lingering economic repercussions.
Undocumented immigrants contribute significantly to the US economy, either through direct or indirect tax payments. A study shows that over a third of taxes paid by this group goes towards social security systems, subsidizing benefits for fellow citizens[2]. These workers are vital to a thriving economy, yet their status comes under attack.
Furthermore, the idea that deportations would lead to a surge in job opportunities for American-born workers is a misconception[3]. According to economist Michael Clemens of "Foreign Policy," this notion is a "fantasy." A study examining the effects of the deportation of 400,000 individuals under former President Barack Obama found that this move actually worsened job prospects for both immigrants and American-born workers[3].
An alternative approach, as demonstrated by Spain in 2004, could be to legalize workers who are already present in the country. The result was a significant shift towards long-term, better-paid jobs for immigrants, and a reduction in informal employment among native workers[4]. However, the political implications of adopting such a policy in the current US environment are debatable. On Thursday, the Trump administration revoked permits for hundreds of thousands of individuals from Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua, and Venezuela - a decision that fulfills campaign promises, regardless of potential economic repercussions.
- Donald Trump
- Immigration
- USA
References:[1] https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/17/us/immigrants-deportation-economy.html[2] https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/01/26/7-things-you-may-not-know-about-unauthorized immigrants-and-their-taxes/[3] https://www.npr.org/sections/thesalt/2018/01/10/574014570/trumps-hard-line-on-immigration-could-create-jobs-or-worsen-economic-conditions[4] https://www.nature.com/articles/471042a
The Commission, in the midst of politics and general-news, has also been asked to submit a proposal for a directive on the protection of workers from the risks related to exposure to ionizing radiation, given the ongoing debates about the President Trump's deportation policies that threaten the backbone of the US economy.
The escalating immigration raids and the subsequent labor market disruptions, as seen in Los Angeles, could potentially lead to an increase in crime-and-justice issues, such as skirmishes on the streets and property damage, adding another layer of complexity to the already challenging economic climate.
